November 24, 2014

Where will mobile break out this holiday?

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Again, the holiday wild card is mobile, both in how much it influences offline and online spending as well as how much purchasing gets done via that channel.

According to IBM’s 2014 holiday shopping report, mobile browsing — both smartphones and tablets — is expected to account for 48.2 percent of all online traffic over the five-day period between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, an increase of 23 percent over last year. Mobile is projected to account for 24.4 percent of all online sales over the five days, up 9.5 percent year-over-year.

But many mobile storylines are being explored this year in surveys, including:

Smartphones vs. tablets: According to IBM’s survey, smartphones will account for 29 percent of all online traffic over the five-day Black Friday period versus 15 percent for tablets. However, tablets will account for twice as many mobile purchases than smartphones thanks to the larger screen size.

Smartphone shopping: According to RichRelevance, the online personalization engine, the top five reasons Millennials plan to use mobile phones this holiday are: to research, 51 percent; compare prices, 46 percent; browse, 44 percent; receive deals/coupons, 38 percent; and find nearby stores, 35 percent. In store, 62 percent of Millennials plan to use mobile phones to research versus 42 percent for all generations. Forty-two percent of Millennials would rather use their phone than find an associate versus 23 percent for middle-aged shoppers.

Smartphone purchases: According to RichRelevance, only 31 percent of Millennials plan to purchase holiday gifts with smartphones. The small screen was cited as the leading barrier to purchase by both Millennials, 74 percent, and middle-aged shoppers, 54 percent. The desire to see and touch an item ranked a distant second for Millennials, 41 percent.

Mobile pay: According to payment systems developer, Stratos, 30 percent of smartphone owners plan to use mobile payment offerings such as Apple Pay or Google Wallet for holiday shopping this year. Less than five percent were "more comfortable" paying with their devices than using traditional payment cards such as credit or debit cards.

Mobile retail marketing: According to Wanderful Media, the operator of the Find&Save coupon app, 51 percent of shoppers are "very interested" in receiving mobile notifications about holiday deals and sales. Twenty percent have already signed up to receive mobile sale alerts.

Social marketing: According to online advertising specialist, Spongecell, 75 percent of U.S. social media users who would interact with ads were most likely to do so with mobile ads on Facebook, compared with eight percent for Twitter and six percent for Pinterest.

Mobile discontent: According to online monitoring firm, Dynatrace, 46 percent of smartphone/tablet owners will holiday shop elsewhere if a mobile site or app fails to load in three seconds or less, up nine percent from last year.

Discussion Questions

What questions should retailers be asking about the influence of mobile this holiday season? Do you see this as a breakout year for mobile purchases, physical-purchase influence, payments, marketing or any other areas?

Poll

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Tony Orlando
Tony Orlando

I do not see it as a breakout year, but that’s just my opinion. Until the dust settles from a business standpoint it is hard to decide which provider to pick from, as the fees are still higher than they need to be right now. Bigger cities will probably do well, as techies and the younger crowd gather and are used to this way of payment. But here in ruralville, not so much.

Nikki Baird
Nikki Baird

I agree with Tony. This year is not the breakout year. Hopefully, this is the year that convinces retailers that everything they think they know about mobile is wrong and they need to start paying far more attention to it than they do. I know that sounds kind of weird, because it’s not like retailers aren’t paying attention. But I see too many people being dismissive of apps, for example, and too many apps and sites that are designed for mobile commerce, but not designed for an integrated experience where mobile is part of the in-store shopping experience. When it comes to that, we’re still in the state of one step forward, two steps back.

Until compelling use cases emerge that are integrative instead of mobile channel-specific, mobile is going to be the land of the intrepid shopper, not the mainstream one.

Roger Saunders
Roger Saunders

Without question, mobile technology will play a bigger role in influence, purchases and payment over this year’s holidays. A breakout year? Not yet.

A year of growth for digital devices is in the cards. The November 2014 Prosper Monthly Consumer Survey points to the fact that 69.1 percent of adults 18 and older now carry a smartphone. That is up from 46.3 percent who carried a smartphone in November 2012. Fully 75.8 percent of adults with a household income of $50,000 and over have this device and 59.9 percent of adults with a household Income less than $50,000 have a smartphone vs. 55.4 percent and 38.0 percent in November of two years ago.

Similar jumps in tablet device ownership have occurred during that two year period. Among adults 18 and older, 44.8 percent have a tablet in the household vs. 22.6 percent in November 2012.

However, consumer actions will determine the “breakout” level. Among owners of these digital devices, about one out of three adults plan to use their smartphone to research or compare prices, and 46.8 percent will use their tablets to take this action. One out of five adults will redeem coupons via their phones, and 14.8 percent will make use of their tablet to get that coupon. Purchasing products via the digital devices, 18 percent via phone and 29.5 percent via tablet, plan on purchasing products in this manner.

Only 5.5 percent of adults will use a smartphone for their purchases over the holidays. Growth—definitely. Breakout—give it another 24 months, and keep digital devices as part of your marketing play.

Zel Bianco
Zel Bianco

I don’t see it as a break out year for anything, but I am sure that all of these areas will continue to see the exponential growth that we have seen over the past few years. Mobile influence is not going away—the more retailers embrace it the better.

Camille P. Schuster, Ph.D.
Camille P. Schuster, Ph.D.

I think online shopping is online shopping, and this could be a breakout year for online shopping. The device used depends upon the consumer and the retailer. Different consumers prefer a desktop, a tablet or a mobile device. Some consumers may use whichever tool is handy when they remember something they have forgotten, get reminded about an idea or see a good deal. However, if the retailer does not treat desktop computers, laptop computers, tablets and smartphones (in all their variations) as one channel ensuring that they all work seamlessly and quickly, the retailer will lose.

James Tenser

This is a thought-provoking roundup of data on mobile commerce. Many of the citations confirm intuition. At least one seems wildly improbable.

In general I concur with findings that indicate more holiday purchases will be influenced this season by information gathered via mobile devices, both prior to and during shopping trips. This will be especially true for high-consideration purchases (where feature and price comparisons matter) and highly-coveted items (where locating the product is challenging).

I also agree that tablet devices will tend to account for more mobile purchases than smartphones. In this respect, they are more like PCs than phones and much easier to manipulate.

When it comes to shopper knowledge of in-store beacons, or their intent to make purchases using mobile payment platforms, I am much more of a skeptic. I ask friends and family about beacons all the time. Nobody ever indicates any awareness.

I cannot reconcile the statistic which indicated 30 percent of smartphone users intend to use mobile payment apps to shop this season. Is it even plausible that 30 percent of smartphone owners have Apple Pay or Google Wallet installed and configured yet? Here’s another instance where surveying shoppers about their intentions can yield misleading response bias.

Gordon Arnold
Gordon Arnold

I see an increase in internet sales media market reports every week. Open source marketing resources and tools demonstrate a continuing growth if the company remains current with technology and market demands. However there is a significant increase in growth captured from competitive mega-sites as compared to market growth. In short, the e-commerce super expansions are slowing down. This will most likely stay flat along with the world economy.

The next greatest departure by consumers aside from the mega-sites is ticket size, or smaller purchases. The consumer is splitting orders electronically and picking them up in a logistically-managed routine at off-peak driving times. In short, many small businesses are micro-managing purchases to protect assets against slower growth. This will continue to force retailers to think out of the box with pricing, logistics and inventory as the strongest means to succeed. Inviting consumers to leave whole shopping lists to bid for is a next-step opportunity that must be explored and exploited to gain ground in the next several years. Customers will save time and time is very important with reduced staff levels, a must in today’s markets.

Matt Schmitt
Matt Schmitt

Nikki makes a great point about many retail apps being commerce-enabled, but they are often not optimized for driving engagement in the store and complimenting physical purchase to a greater extent.

I think we should see a lot of analysis on how apps are being (or aren’t being) used while shoppers are in the physical store, and then planning to better optimize location-based experiences and engagement.

Lee Peterson

This is going to be a break out year for online shopping, period. Mobile and at home combined should be what Malcolm Gladwell refers to as the “tipping point” for non-physical sales. Early studies show that more than 70% of consumers plan to buy “most” of their gifts online. That’s phenomenal.

If this Xmas doesn’t put the fire under the platform about making stores better, nothing will. If stores don’t improve and become more experiential, in terms of design, associates, organization and pure entertainment, why bother having them at all?

John Karolefski

Mobile will be increasingly important to consumers, retailers and marketers year after year. But a “breakout year”? That depends. For mobile purchases and payment, the answer is no. For physical-purchase influence and marketing, the answer is maybe.

Gajendra Ratnavel
Gajendra Ratnavel

From all this data, one thing is certainly clear. Relevant and personalized promotions and discounts is the way to go. Facebook data creates better profiles of their users hence the 75% of the users are likely to click on their adverts.

Rich Relevance report is interesting but not surprising. If you are going to do online shopping, you are more likely to do it at home on your desktop with a bigger screen but on the go, you just want information for the places you are in or going to and some price comparison to make sure you get a reasonable deal.

Find&Save’s report is also interesting because I would expect nearly 100% of their customer base to want to receive coupons. I mean, that is what they do and if you are their customer, what else did you sign up for? Probably need more information on the study but it seems on the surface that people may not like receiving coupons on their phones as much as their email inbox?

Lee Kent
Lee Kent

Like everyone else here, I do not think this will be a breakout year for anything, but I do know that online sales—regardless of platform—will continue to rise.

When the customer knows what they want, can get a good price and get it on time, why bother going to the store? Stay home, save gas, reduce hassle and have a stress free Holiday.

Will they try mobile payments? Sure, if they have the right device. Will they respond to marketing? Sure.

Most Holiday shoppers have long lists and are armed with wish lists, many from brands that they may not shop very often, if at all. Retail must be ready to move these shoppers through the shopping experience seamlessly, whether online or in-store.

Advice too late for many retailers however, if they have not already, it’s time to add journey mapping projects to their to-do lists for next year…and that’s my 2 cents!

Christina Ellwood
Christina Ellwood

Use of mobile is context specific. Tablets are more often used when sitting down (coffee shop, doctor’s office, couch, etc.) and when people have a bit of time on their hands. That’s part of the reason tablet sales are higher. Mobile is used for immediate on-the-go needs—finding a store; price shopping while in the store; buying out-of-stock items from websites; etc. Retailers should take advantage of this difference and deliver the consumer an experience suited to their device.

Arie Shpanya
Arie Shpanya

There’s no doubt that mobile commerce is growing. It’s nice to see that the data confirms it, but it also means that retailers need to spring into action. Of course mobile sites need to functional and appealing, but pricing is just as important.

RichRelevance reported that 46% of millennials use mobile phones to compare prices. This means that retailers not only need to know how their pricing compares to competitors’, but also keep up with changes in the market and react accordingly.

Mobile is becoming round one in many shoppers’ path to purchase. A non-competitive price (without clear added value that validates it) can get a retailer knocked out early on. No retailer wants this and that’s why many adopt a dynamic pricing solution to stay competitive and profitable at all times.

Ryan Mathews

Retailers need to know the mobile habits of their target market. Generalizations are fine but before a retailer invests, they have to have some idea as to the size of the potential prize.

Breakout is an interesting term. If purchases are just shifting between platforms I’m not sure that meets my standards for a breakout.

Will a lot of people shop through their phones and tablets? Yes.

More than last year? Probably.

Is this a retail revolution? Not quite yet.

Ralph Jacobson
Ralph Jacobson

A new study suggests that 50% of CPG and Retail website visits and 24% of purchases will be via mobile during the holiday shopping season in the U.S. In a word, the answer is, “YES,” this is a breakout year for mobile use for shoppers.

16 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Tony Orlando
Tony Orlando

I do not see it as a breakout year, but that’s just my opinion. Until the dust settles from a business standpoint it is hard to decide which provider to pick from, as the fees are still higher than they need to be right now. Bigger cities will probably do well, as techies and the younger crowd gather and are used to this way of payment. But here in ruralville, not so much.

Nikki Baird
Nikki Baird

I agree with Tony. This year is not the breakout year. Hopefully, this is the year that convinces retailers that everything they think they know about mobile is wrong and they need to start paying far more attention to it than they do. I know that sounds kind of weird, because it’s not like retailers aren’t paying attention. But I see too many people being dismissive of apps, for example, and too many apps and sites that are designed for mobile commerce, but not designed for an integrated experience where mobile is part of the in-store shopping experience. When it comes to that, we’re still in the state of one step forward, two steps back.

Until compelling use cases emerge that are integrative instead of mobile channel-specific, mobile is going to be the land of the intrepid shopper, not the mainstream one.

Roger Saunders
Roger Saunders

Without question, mobile technology will play a bigger role in influence, purchases and payment over this year’s holidays. A breakout year? Not yet.

A year of growth for digital devices is in the cards. The November 2014 Prosper Monthly Consumer Survey points to the fact that 69.1 percent of adults 18 and older now carry a smartphone. That is up from 46.3 percent who carried a smartphone in November 2012. Fully 75.8 percent of adults with a household income of $50,000 and over have this device and 59.9 percent of adults with a household Income less than $50,000 have a smartphone vs. 55.4 percent and 38.0 percent in November of two years ago.

Similar jumps in tablet device ownership have occurred during that two year period. Among adults 18 and older, 44.8 percent have a tablet in the household vs. 22.6 percent in November 2012.

However, consumer actions will determine the “breakout” level. Among owners of these digital devices, about one out of three adults plan to use their smartphone to research or compare prices, and 46.8 percent will use their tablets to take this action. One out of five adults will redeem coupons via their phones, and 14.8 percent will make use of their tablet to get that coupon. Purchasing products via the digital devices, 18 percent via phone and 29.5 percent via tablet, plan on purchasing products in this manner.

Only 5.5 percent of adults will use a smartphone for their purchases over the holidays. Growth—definitely. Breakout—give it another 24 months, and keep digital devices as part of your marketing play.

Zel Bianco
Zel Bianco

I don’t see it as a break out year for anything, but I am sure that all of these areas will continue to see the exponential growth that we have seen over the past few years. Mobile influence is not going away—the more retailers embrace it the better.

Camille P. Schuster, Ph.D.
Camille P. Schuster, Ph.D.

I think online shopping is online shopping, and this could be a breakout year for online shopping. The device used depends upon the consumer and the retailer. Different consumers prefer a desktop, a tablet or a mobile device. Some consumers may use whichever tool is handy when they remember something they have forgotten, get reminded about an idea or see a good deal. However, if the retailer does not treat desktop computers, laptop computers, tablets and smartphones (in all their variations) as one channel ensuring that they all work seamlessly and quickly, the retailer will lose.

James Tenser

This is a thought-provoking roundup of data on mobile commerce. Many of the citations confirm intuition. At least one seems wildly improbable.

In general I concur with findings that indicate more holiday purchases will be influenced this season by information gathered via mobile devices, both prior to and during shopping trips. This will be especially true for high-consideration purchases (where feature and price comparisons matter) and highly-coveted items (where locating the product is challenging).

I also agree that tablet devices will tend to account for more mobile purchases than smartphones. In this respect, they are more like PCs than phones and much easier to manipulate.

When it comes to shopper knowledge of in-store beacons, or their intent to make purchases using mobile payment platforms, I am much more of a skeptic. I ask friends and family about beacons all the time. Nobody ever indicates any awareness.

I cannot reconcile the statistic which indicated 30 percent of smartphone users intend to use mobile payment apps to shop this season. Is it even plausible that 30 percent of smartphone owners have Apple Pay or Google Wallet installed and configured yet? Here’s another instance where surveying shoppers about their intentions can yield misleading response bias.

Gordon Arnold
Gordon Arnold

I see an increase in internet sales media market reports every week. Open source marketing resources and tools demonstrate a continuing growth if the company remains current with technology and market demands. However there is a significant increase in growth captured from competitive mega-sites as compared to market growth. In short, the e-commerce super expansions are slowing down. This will most likely stay flat along with the world economy.

The next greatest departure by consumers aside from the mega-sites is ticket size, or smaller purchases. The consumer is splitting orders electronically and picking them up in a logistically-managed routine at off-peak driving times. In short, many small businesses are micro-managing purchases to protect assets against slower growth. This will continue to force retailers to think out of the box with pricing, logistics and inventory as the strongest means to succeed. Inviting consumers to leave whole shopping lists to bid for is a next-step opportunity that must be explored and exploited to gain ground in the next several years. Customers will save time and time is very important with reduced staff levels, a must in today’s markets.

Matt Schmitt
Matt Schmitt

Nikki makes a great point about many retail apps being commerce-enabled, but they are often not optimized for driving engagement in the store and complimenting physical purchase to a greater extent.

I think we should see a lot of analysis on how apps are being (or aren’t being) used while shoppers are in the physical store, and then planning to better optimize location-based experiences and engagement.

Lee Peterson

This is going to be a break out year for online shopping, period. Mobile and at home combined should be what Malcolm Gladwell refers to as the “tipping point” for non-physical sales. Early studies show that more than 70% of consumers plan to buy “most” of their gifts online. That’s phenomenal.

If this Xmas doesn’t put the fire under the platform about making stores better, nothing will. If stores don’t improve and become more experiential, in terms of design, associates, organization and pure entertainment, why bother having them at all?

John Karolefski

Mobile will be increasingly important to consumers, retailers and marketers year after year. But a “breakout year”? That depends. For mobile purchases and payment, the answer is no. For physical-purchase influence and marketing, the answer is maybe.

Gajendra Ratnavel
Gajendra Ratnavel

From all this data, one thing is certainly clear. Relevant and personalized promotions and discounts is the way to go. Facebook data creates better profiles of their users hence the 75% of the users are likely to click on their adverts.

Rich Relevance report is interesting but not surprising. If you are going to do online shopping, you are more likely to do it at home on your desktop with a bigger screen but on the go, you just want information for the places you are in or going to and some price comparison to make sure you get a reasonable deal.

Find&Save’s report is also interesting because I would expect nearly 100% of their customer base to want to receive coupons. I mean, that is what they do and if you are their customer, what else did you sign up for? Probably need more information on the study but it seems on the surface that people may not like receiving coupons on their phones as much as their email inbox?

Lee Kent
Lee Kent

Like everyone else here, I do not think this will be a breakout year for anything, but I do know that online sales—regardless of platform—will continue to rise.

When the customer knows what they want, can get a good price and get it on time, why bother going to the store? Stay home, save gas, reduce hassle and have a stress free Holiday.

Will they try mobile payments? Sure, if they have the right device. Will they respond to marketing? Sure.

Most Holiday shoppers have long lists and are armed with wish lists, many from brands that they may not shop very often, if at all. Retail must be ready to move these shoppers through the shopping experience seamlessly, whether online or in-store.

Advice too late for many retailers however, if they have not already, it’s time to add journey mapping projects to their to-do lists for next year…and that’s my 2 cents!

Christina Ellwood
Christina Ellwood

Use of mobile is context specific. Tablets are more often used when sitting down (coffee shop, doctor’s office, couch, etc.) and when people have a bit of time on their hands. That’s part of the reason tablet sales are higher. Mobile is used for immediate on-the-go needs—finding a store; price shopping while in the store; buying out-of-stock items from websites; etc. Retailers should take advantage of this difference and deliver the consumer an experience suited to their device.

Arie Shpanya
Arie Shpanya

There’s no doubt that mobile commerce is growing. It’s nice to see that the data confirms it, but it also means that retailers need to spring into action. Of course mobile sites need to functional and appealing, but pricing is just as important.

RichRelevance reported that 46% of millennials use mobile phones to compare prices. This means that retailers not only need to know how their pricing compares to competitors’, but also keep up with changes in the market and react accordingly.

Mobile is becoming round one in many shoppers’ path to purchase. A non-competitive price (without clear added value that validates it) can get a retailer knocked out early on. No retailer wants this and that’s why many adopt a dynamic pricing solution to stay competitive and profitable at all times.

Ryan Mathews

Retailers need to know the mobile habits of their target market. Generalizations are fine but before a retailer invests, they have to have some idea as to the size of the potential prize.

Breakout is an interesting term. If purchases are just shifting between platforms I’m not sure that meets my standards for a breakout.

Will a lot of people shop through their phones and tablets? Yes.

More than last year? Probably.

Is this a retail revolution? Not quite yet.

Ralph Jacobson
Ralph Jacobson

A new study suggests that 50% of CPG and Retail website visits and 24% of purchases will be via mobile during the holiday shopping season in the U.S. In a word, the answer is, “YES,” this is a breakout year for mobile use for shoppers.

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