September 14, 2007
The Way It Could Be
By Bernice
Hurst, Managing Director, Fine Food Network
Many of us base our current business activities on what we believe will be wanted or needed in the future. Now, U.K. environmental consultancy Forum for the Future, with the support of Tesco and Unilever, have published research that reveals four possible scenarios for retailing in 2022.
The authors explain, “Each scenario is a different version of what the retail sector and its operating context could look like in 2022. None is intended to be a prediction, or to be better or worse than the other. Our hope is that each scenario is a plausible, internally consistent, possible future in its own right, reflecting combinations of the desirable and less desirable outcomes that will be a feature of most future trends. Taken together, the scenarios provide a challenge to the retail sector to develop robust future-proof strategies that will deliver more sustainable retail in a time of radical change.”
Briefly, the scenarios can be summarized as follows:
My
way – an individualistic society with the internet and other technologies held in high regard; consumers are demanding and unpredictable, often buying directly from producers rather than big chains.
Sell it to me – buoyant economy with confident people, happy for big business to take the lead in meeting their needs and expectations rather than taking personal responsibility, handing over personal information so that they can be supplied with products tailored to their specific needs and preferences.
From me to you – subdued, uncertain economy with people concerned about climate change; young people building debt, older people worried about surviving on small pensions resulting in less disposable income, a contracting retail sector and an increase in co-operative behavior, growing and swapping goods rather than buying.
I’m in your hands – low consumer confidence, high reliance on government and big business for security and solutions resulting in a highly structured, centralized, supervised society with many of their needs supplied automatically and shopping done online with bricks & mortar stores primarily turned into showrooms.
The object of the exercise was to provide a forum for discussion using the scenarios as tools to test ideas and policies against. The group also hopes to stimulate future product or format ideas that may contribute to sustainable development as well as providing a long-term context for sustainable development strategies within the retail sector in the UK. Some of the predictions, however, can be applied globally as that is the direction being taken by both retailers and manufacturers.
Discussion Questions: Do you think any of the scenarios
come close to the way you envision retailing in the U.S. in 2022? Do you
think particular factors deserve more or less emphasis?
[Author’s commentary]
Well, it should do what it says on the label and stimulate discussion.
Taking a combination of thinkers/analysts, a major multinational manufacturer
and a retailer whose avowed intention is to conquer the world, sprinkle
in every conceivable variation on the way society is likely to change and
hey, presto, you have four scenarios to consider. A little bit of this
and a little bit of that will certainly make the world go round.
BrainTrust
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Discussion Questions
Poll
To forecast consumer sentiment 15 years from now is an exercise in futility. Can anyone have foreseen the current decline in consumer spending and positive sentiment based on robust levels of consumption, housing prices, etc. just a couple of years ago? And it’s not hard to foresee improvements from today’s levels of uncertainty after another year or so.
It’s easier to forecast that the consumer mindset will be more individualistic (not more structured)–almost like the Amazon or “Long Tail” model, with technology having a lot to do with this. Today’s cell phone will probably seem primitive compared to what portable devices can do for communication and consumption 15 years down the road. So patterns of behavior may change but will still be subject to the ups and downs of the business cycle.
These scenarios show all the benefits (and flaws) that my compatriots in the future business usually display. The biggest benefit? They stimulate thinking. The biggest flaw: as a way of discerning the future, extrapolation is almost always wrong, as it is dependent upon two fatal caveats: “all other things being equal” (which of course they are not), and “if present trends continue” (which of course they won’t).
I took up the challenge of looking back to what I was saying about retail in 1992 in the pages of my newsletter FutureScan (now Growth Strategies, available at http://www.rogerselbert.com). A lot of the subjects were about demographics and emerging consumer groups (tech-savvy kids, seniors, independent women, Hispanics, small businesses, “influentials,” baby boomers, baby busters, the middle-aged, the affluent, black Americans, Asian Americans, telecommuters). I found this fascinating because my current issue (September 2007) is also about the “niche-ing” of America. At the end I conclude, as I did 17 years ago, that the future belongs to mass customization and markets of one.
I’ll post some more thoughts later.
All of these types of customers already exist today and each retailer has its own set of customers. The business of retailing is always evolving and making predictions for what’s going to happen in 2022 is pointless and serves no value. Most chains have a hard time thinking about 3 quarters from now.
The way it will be:
The majority of staples will be ordered online and delivered. Brick and Mortar stores are there just for convenience (all brick and mortar are, in essence convenience stores) or for specialty items as well as bulky products and things too large or heavy to ship cheaply. Online ordering will not just be from large companies (Amazon, etc.) Local, website-only “stores” will open up to cater to this market.
Will consumers order directly from the manufacturer? Maybe in some cases but I don’t see the large brands going into competition with their current customers (current distributors and retailers). What I DO see happening are smaller retailers ordering directly from the manufacturers in large quantities, then becoming micro distributors of just one or two products. I already see this happening to a lesser degree.
I have found some merit in nearly all of the panelists entries today despite their, in some cases, polar-opposite conclusions.
That is not surprising, considering we are asked to conjecture upon four futurist conjured scenarios.
Roger Selbert adds two important caveats, that in my opinion, make all such conjecture of limited value. At the same time, there are other elements not considered, such as shifts in economic and political hegemony; shifts in the content and drivers of economic activity (industrial to consumer based); environmental shifts and their impact on supply and demand and so on.
It is the things which we don’t know that will have the greatest impact on consumer patterns and trends. The folly, in my mind, is that to engage in exercises which attempt to predict, quantify and qualify these unknowns ignores this reality, and in and of itself is largely useless.
While radical change can happen, change is more likely to be subtle in its development; it is in looking backwards that it appears to be more radical.
In my mind the best adapters to changes in consumer behavior are those who are expert tacticians, who look just far enough ahead to take advantage of current trends and change continuously. There are many who are doing this today, successfully; retailers such as Tesco (tapping time starved urban demand), Kwik Trip and Sheetz (redefining convenience), Walgreens and Shopko (instore health clinics, health store prototypes).
When people, politicians, pundits and the grocery industry can’t predict–with any certainty–what would be the shape of things to come next year, it is foolhardy, wasteful and bizarre to imagine or speculate about 2022. This is one project which had no credibility from the minute it was envisioned.
Each of the four scenarios will exist, and that’s the real news. Retail is moving from a mass system based on an efficient distribution system that is designed to provide a wide selection to what I’ll call “targeted retail.” In this scenario, economies of scale and the lack of time by the consumer converge to allow “selling/merchandising” systems to take on a wide number of platforms to accommodate the wide variety of consumer segments. Individually, a single “selling/merchandising” system will be able to operate as a stand-alone profitable entity but more than likely we will see a corporate entity with a several different “selling/merchandising” systems in their portfolio. Each “selling/merchandising” platform will have a life expectancy of no more than 20 years, which signals a reduction from the 40 year life span most retail formats have enjoyed up till now.
I agree with Richard Seesel that this is a prediction of consumer sentiment not of retailing. Each of these predictions begins with how consumers perceive their retailing experience or want it to be.
Given that this is a prediction of consumers rather than retailing, my prediction for retailers is that they need to be prepared to respond whichever group of consumers are most valuable to them. If trying to appeal to more than one of these groups, the retailer will have to make changes to appeal to both.
Consumers will be sorted across all categories. Since the categories are significantly different, it will be even more important than today for retailers to choose their preferred consumer group.
I “no opinion” in the poll because I believe there are two categories that have application to the future (whether 2022, or whatever). “My Way” specifically, speaks to the generations after the Baby Boomers and their major usage of the internet, social networking (word-of-mouth), and the websites leading directly to a company’s products. This will be a major challenge to ‘brick and mortar’ retailers. A new strategic focus by all retailers against such a very difficult target group to advertise to and capture is evident!
One will note, through reported 1) research studies and 2) business articles, these ‘after Boomer’ generations eat out more than their parents. And interestingly, rely more on friends recommendations or word-of-mouth messages than advertising. The retail supermarket,and non-food retailers will have to address such to be successful. And today’s answers by all retailers aren’t the ones that will relate more to these ‘after BB’ generations. This isn’t an opinion, but fact; and is intended to support a ‘call to action’ that few retail corporations have addressed…with the exception of the efforts of retailers like Sony or Apple.
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
As some other commentators already mentioned, these macro scenarios and segments already exists. Big business need to be aware of these for longer term planning; smaller business needs to focus on what their customer look like or prefer today and maybe tomorrow.
Business, big and small, especially retail businesses, need to be more flexible to meet changing circumstances.
The scenarios do help to trigger thoughts for longer term planning. “From me to You” will increasingly define the mass market given the way income distributions are trending in the USA and the rest of the world.
Besides, US retail trends are not totally insular…it will be affected by trends in China where most manufacturing will fortunately or unfortunately be located in the period under discussion. There is a big shift from the “I am in your hands” scenario to the “From me to you.”
The trend towards state-welfarism and corporate welfarism is more or less dead and is not likely to recur except as a part of corporate PR and community relations programs. If the riches people in the world, like the Gates’, give more to charity and social causes…the income gap may be reduced.
The better heeled will be able to demand customization, choosing between, “My way” or “Sell it to me”
The rest of the mass market will probably be swept as they are today by current fads.
I’d like to read the study, because the description here makes it seem like a pretty simplistic scenario envisioning exercise. Picture a 2×2 matrix with “Economy – Good, Bad” on the X-axis, and “Consumers – Positive, Negative” on the Y-axis, and you get those 4 scenarios.
One trend that I’ve seen that has not changed course maybe even since the beginning of the 20th century is that goods are easier to buy–not all goods, for reasons other than retail-related (it’s pretty hard to buy, say, Cuban cigars in the US for example). But store hours have expanded, holidays that used to find stores closed now find them open and blazing with sales, and heck, if the store is closed, buy online–it’s always open. The next wave of “convenience” will be in integrating the mobile phone into that process, and integrating the connections between channels.
But what is the consequence of convenience? Retailers will have taken all of the “hunt” out of figuring out what you want and where to get it. As soon as you realize you need something, there’s going to be a million sites to help you figure out which brand to buy and where to get it, all with helpful links to get you there. I think we have to look to consumers’ reaction to that near-instant gratification as one of the axes in scenario envisioning, and there are more than 2 possibilities. Do consumers embrace it–consumerism run rampant? Do consumers reject it? Do they accept it, but look for something else to fill the void left by no longer having to “hunt” for it?
Some futurists have talked about the rise of the experience economy–where “getting” isn’t the objective of retail anymore, but rather outfitting and enabling an experience. “It’s not grocery shopping, it’s a creative cooking experience!” I’m not sure how much of that we can really stand as a society, but I’d look there first for indicators as to where consumers are heading.
How is this any different than what retailers are facing today?
These days, and in the future, long range planning might be six months. If you’re basing business now on what might happen 15 years down the line, you won’t be around to see it.
Elements of all 4 scenarios already exist. That’s likely in the future, too. Some folks are poor and getting poorer, depending more and more on the government. Some folks love being served by big business, have the money for it, and don’t care about sharing personal information. Another likely trend already well on its way: one or two dominant retail chains in every category, with most minority market share players long gone. How many different national shoe store chains, department store chains, optical chains, and clothing chains will there be? My guess is 50% to 90% fewer. America has too many similar stores, with too much square footage, and an older population buys less. More and more, it’s clear that shoppers are painfully aware of just how few brands and stores are really special.
I love scenarios for their ability to provoke thought and preparatory actions. The four scenarios presented here are well-thought out and thoroughly researched.
From this list, I feel that the “From You to Me” scenario is most plausible. The economic situation may be quite tentative at best, but the consumer-to-consumer network as an economic force will rise in importance throughout the 21st century. The Chinese concept of Guanxi will seep into global cultures for distribution of resources, regardless of government sanction. The survival of individuals may indeed depend on the strength of their respective networks.
Wow, what a fun study with some credible possibilities. My prediction is that in the year 2022 the needs with the matching scenarios will be almost as difficult to categorize as they are so today because consumers will fall into all four of these groups, and probably also a fifth one that we don’t yet know about today. Does anyone have a similar study from 15 years ago; say 1992, which predicted what scenarios would be the fact of life in 2007? Now, this would be interesting reading! Here’s a few I just read from articles written in trade journals in the year 1992: In (approximately 15 years) many consumers will be purchasing their basic needs on Prodigy, the new phenomena owned and operated by Sears. Most consumers by 2007 will be purchasing store brand consumer goods. And Wal-Mart will own 50% of the retail stores in the U.S. Hmm, well one out of three isn’t too bad! OK, not exactly.
I happen to agree predicting the future of retail 15 years out is at best a difficult and generally not so accurate process. This especially is true when one gets to the “finer points” of food retailing: What will be the state of prepared foods merchandising, organic, and other specific categorical aspects? There are so many external variables involved: The future of agriculture, the environment, international economies and more, that 15 years out is tough.
However, without going out on a limb, I do predict 15 years from now one of the most profound changes in retailing will be a green (environmental) retailing revolution. Renewable energy sources at store level will be near the norm, biodegradable grocery bags–and the near-universal use of reusable canvas-type bags, in-store recycling, water reuse, and more “green” elements will be at critical mass in 15 years. Retailers will be measured on their carbon output as well as P/L’s.
This near-term green future scenario will especially be the case if the next Presidential administration and congress (2008) passes green legislation that creates a bundle of incentives that reward retailers for using green building guidelines and standards (such as LEED) in new stores and to remodel their existing stores. A market-driven legislative package including green tax breaks and other incentives would go a long way in speeding up the process I describe.
In the UK, Marks & Spencer and Tesco are leading the way in green retailing dramatically already today. Next month, M&S will open their two new “eco-stores” in Scotland. The totality of green building principles the chain is using in these stores is the most comprehensive of any retailer to date. Tesco also is moving in the same direction and will be breaking ground on a similar new green store soon in the UK.
Here at home, Wal-Mart, Safeway, Whole Foods, Publix and a couple others are getting there in terms of a green focus. They will soon take the next step I believe and begin to look at a M&S/ Tesco “eco-store” concept here in the states.
I have a number of news pieces and features about this greening of retail in my newsletter/Blog Natural~Specialty Foods Memo. You can find it at: http://www.naturalspecialtyfoodsmemo.blogspot.com
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To forecast consumer sentiment 15 years from now is an exercise in futility. Can anyone have foreseen the current decline in consumer spending and positive sentiment based on robust levels of consumption, housing prices, etc. just a couple of years ago? And it’s not hard to foresee improvements from today’s levels of uncertainty after another year or so.
It’s easier to forecast that the consumer mindset will be more individualistic (not more structured)–almost like the Amazon or “Long Tail” model, with technology having a lot to do with this. Today’s cell phone will probably seem primitive compared to what portable devices can do for communication and consumption 15 years down the road. So patterns of behavior may change but will still be subject to the ups and downs of the business cycle.
These scenarios show all the benefits (and flaws) that my compatriots in the future business usually display. The biggest benefit? They stimulate thinking. The biggest flaw: as a way of discerning the future, extrapolation is almost always wrong, as it is dependent upon two fatal caveats: “all other things being equal” (which of course they are not), and “if present trends continue” (which of course they won’t).
I took up the challenge of looking back to what I was saying about retail in 1992 in the pages of my newsletter FutureScan (now Growth Strategies, available at http://www.rogerselbert.com). A lot of the subjects were about demographics and emerging consumer groups (tech-savvy kids, seniors, independent women, Hispanics, small businesses, “influentials,” baby boomers, baby busters, the middle-aged, the affluent, black Americans, Asian Americans, telecommuters). I found this fascinating because my current issue (September 2007) is also about the “niche-ing” of America. At the end I conclude, as I did 17 years ago, that the future belongs to mass customization and markets of one.
I’ll post some more thoughts later.
All of these types of customers already exist today and each retailer has its own set of customers. The business of retailing is always evolving and making predictions for what’s going to happen in 2022 is pointless and serves no value. Most chains have a hard time thinking about 3 quarters from now.
The way it will be:
The majority of staples will be ordered online and delivered. Brick and Mortar stores are there just for convenience (all brick and mortar are, in essence convenience stores) or for specialty items as well as bulky products and things too large or heavy to ship cheaply. Online ordering will not just be from large companies (Amazon, etc.) Local, website-only “stores” will open up to cater to this market.
Will consumers order directly from the manufacturer? Maybe in some cases but I don’t see the large brands going into competition with their current customers (current distributors and retailers). What I DO see happening are smaller retailers ordering directly from the manufacturers in large quantities, then becoming micro distributors of just one or two products. I already see this happening to a lesser degree.
I have found some merit in nearly all of the panelists entries today despite their, in some cases, polar-opposite conclusions.
That is not surprising, considering we are asked to conjecture upon four futurist conjured scenarios.
Roger Selbert adds two important caveats, that in my opinion, make all such conjecture of limited value. At the same time, there are other elements not considered, such as shifts in economic and political hegemony; shifts in the content and drivers of economic activity (industrial to consumer based); environmental shifts and their impact on supply and demand and so on.
It is the things which we don’t know that will have the greatest impact on consumer patterns and trends. The folly, in my mind, is that to engage in exercises which attempt to predict, quantify and qualify these unknowns ignores this reality, and in and of itself is largely useless.
While radical change can happen, change is more likely to be subtle in its development; it is in looking backwards that it appears to be more radical.
In my mind the best adapters to changes in consumer behavior are those who are expert tacticians, who look just far enough ahead to take advantage of current trends and change continuously. There are many who are doing this today, successfully; retailers such as Tesco (tapping time starved urban demand), Kwik Trip and Sheetz (redefining convenience), Walgreens and Shopko (instore health clinics, health store prototypes).
When people, politicians, pundits and the grocery industry can’t predict–with any certainty–what would be the shape of things to come next year, it is foolhardy, wasteful and bizarre to imagine or speculate about 2022. This is one project which had no credibility from the minute it was envisioned.
Each of the four scenarios will exist, and that’s the real news. Retail is moving from a mass system based on an efficient distribution system that is designed to provide a wide selection to what I’ll call “targeted retail.” In this scenario, economies of scale and the lack of time by the consumer converge to allow “selling/merchandising” systems to take on a wide number of platforms to accommodate the wide variety of consumer segments. Individually, a single “selling/merchandising” system will be able to operate as a stand-alone profitable entity but more than likely we will see a corporate entity with a several different “selling/merchandising” systems in their portfolio. Each “selling/merchandising” platform will have a life expectancy of no more than 20 years, which signals a reduction from the 40 year life span most retail formats have enjoyed up till now.
I agree with Richard Seesel that this is a prediction of consumer sentiment not of retailing. Each of these predictions begins with how consumers perceive their retailing experience or want it to be.
Given that this is a prediction of consumers rather than retailing, my prediction for retailers is that they need to be prepared to respond whichever group of consumers are most valuable to them. If trying to appeal to more than one of these groups, the retailer will have to make changes to appeal to both.
Consumers will be sorted across all categories. Since the categories are significantly different, it will be even more important than today for retailers to choose their preferred consumer group.
I “no opinion” in the poll because I believe there are two categories that have application to the future (whether 2022, or whatever). “My Way” specifically, speaks to the generations after the Baby Boomers and their major usage of the internet, social networking (word-of-mouth), and the websites leading directly to a company’s products. This will be a major challenge to ‘brick and mortar’ retailers. A new strategic focus by all retailers against such a very difficult target group to advertise to and capture is evident!
One will note, through reported 1) research studies and 2) business articles, these ‘after Boomer’ generations eat out more than their parents. And interestingly, rely more on friends recommendations or word-of-mouth messages than advertising. The retail supermarket,and non-food retailers will have to address such to be successful. And today’s answers by all retailers aren’t the ones that will relate more to these ‘after BB’ generations. This isn’t an opinion, but fact; and is intended to support a ‘call to action’ that few retail corporations have addressed…with the exception of the efforts of retailers like Sony or Apple.
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
As some other commentators already mentioned, these macro scenarios and segments already exists. Big business need to be aware of these for longer term planning; smaller business needs to focus on what their customer look like or prefer today and maybe tomorrow.
Business, big and small, especially retail businesses, need to be more flexible to meet changing circumstances.
The scenarios do help to trigger thoughts for longer term planning. “From me to You” will increasingly define the mass market given the way income distributions are trending in the USA and the rest of the world.
Besides, US retail trends are not totally insular…it will be affected by trends in China where most manufacturing will fortunately or unfortunately be located in the period under discussion. There is a big shift from the “I am in your hands” scenario to the “From me to you.”
The trend towards state-welfarism and corporate welfarism is more or less dead and is not likely to recur except as a part of corporate PR and community relations programs. If the riches people in the world, like the Gates’, give more to charity and social causes…the income gap may be reduced.
The better heeled will be able to demand customization, choosing between, “My way” or “Sell it to me”
The rest of the mass market will probably be swept as they are today by current fads.
I’d like to read the study, because the description here makes it seem like a pretty simplistic scenario envisioning exercise. Picture a 2×2 matrix with “Economy – Good, Bad” on the X-axis, and “Consumers – Positive, Negative” on the Y-axis, and you get those 4 scenarios.
One trend that I’ve seen that has not changed course maybe even since the beginning of the 20th century is that goods are easier to buy–not all goods, for reasons other than retail-related (it’s pretty hard to buy, say, Cuban cigars in the US for example). But store hours have expanded, holidays that used to find stores closed now find them open and blazing with sales, and heck, if the store is closed, buy online–it’s always open. The next wave of “convenience” will be in integrating the mobile phone into that process, and integrating the connections between channels.
But what is the consequence of convenience? Retailers will have taken all of the “hunt” out of figuring out what you want and where to get it. As soon as you realize you need something, there’s going to be a million sites to help you figure out which brand to buy and where to get it, all with helpful links to get you there. I think we have to look to consumers’ reaction to that near-instant gratification as one of the axes in scenario envisioning, and there are more than 2 possibilities. Do consumers embrace it–consumerism run rampant? Do consumers reject it? Do they accept it, but look for something else to fill the void left by no longer having to “hunt” for it?
Some futurists have talked about the rise of the experience economy–where “getting” isn’t the objective of retail anymore, but rather outfitting and enabling an experience. “It’s not grocery shopping, it’s a creative cooking experience!” I’m not sure how much of that we can really stand as a society, but I’d look there first for indicators as to where consumers are heading.
How is this any different than what retailers are facing today?
These days, and in the future, long range planning might be six months. If you’re basing business now on what might happen 15 years down the line, you won’t be around to see it.
Elements of all 4 scenarios already exist. That’s likely in the future, too. Some folks are poor and getting poorer, depending more and more on the government. Some folks love being served by big business, have the money for it, and don’t care about sharing personal information. Another likely trend already well on its way: one or two dominant retail chains in every category, with most minority market share players long gone. How many different national shoe store chains, department store chains, optical chains, and clothing chains will there be? My guess is 50% to 90% fewer. America has too many similar stores, with too much square footage, and an older population buys less. More and more, it’s clear that shoppers are painfully aware of just how few brands and stores are really special.
I love scenarios for their ability to provoke thought and preparatory actions. The four scenarios presented here are well-thought out and thoroughly researched.
From this list, I feel that the “From You to Me” scenario is most plausible. The economic situation may be quite tentative at best, but the consumer-to-consumer network as an economic force will rise in importance throughout the 21st century. The Chinese concept of Guanxi will seep into global cultures for distribution of resources, regardless of government sanction. The survival of individuals may indeed depend on the strength of their respective networks.
Wow, what a fun study with some credible possibilities. My prediction is that in the year 2022 the needs with the matching scenarios will be almost as difficult to categorize as they are so today because consumers will fall into all four of these groups, and probably also a fifth one that we don’t yet know about today. Does anyone have a similar study from 15 years ago; say 1992, which predicted what scenarios would be the fact of life in 2007? Now, this would be interesting reading! Here’s a few I just read from articles written in trade journals in the year 1992: In (approximately 15 years) many consumers will be purchasing their basic needs on Prodigy, the new phenomena owned and operated by Sears. Most consumers by 2007 will be purchasing store brand consumer goods. And Wal-Mart will own 50% of the retail stores in the U.S. Hmm, well one out of three isn’t too bad! OK, not exactly.
I happen to agree predicting the future of retail 15 years out is at best a difficult and generally not so accurate process. This especially is true when one gets to the “finer points” of food retailing: What will be the state of prepared foods merchandising, organic, and other specific categorical aspects? There are so many external variables involved: The future of agriculture, the environment, international economies and more, that 15 years out is tough.
However, without going out on a limb, I do predict 15 years from now one of the most profound changes in retailing will be a green (environmental) retailing revolution. Renewable energy sources at store level will be near the norm, biodegradable grocery bags–and the near-universal use of reusable canvas-type bags, in-store recycling, water reuse, and more “green” elements will be at critical mass in 15 years. Retailers will be measured on their carbon output as well as P/L’s.
This near-term green future scenario will especially be the case if the next Presidential administration and congress (2008) passes green legislation that creates a bundle of incentives that reward retailers for using green building guidelines and standards (such as LEED) in new stores and to remodel their existing stores. A market-driven legislative package including green tax breaks and other incentives would go a long way in speeding up the process I describe.
In the UK, Marks & Spencer and Tesco are leading the way in green retailing dramatically already today. Next month, M&S will open their two new “eco-stores” in Scotland. The totality of green building principles the chain is using in these stores is the most comprehensive of any retailer to date. Tesco also is moving in the same direction and will be breaking ground on a similar new green store soon in the UK.
Here at home, Wal-Mart, Safeway, Whole Foods, Publix and a couple others are getting there in terms of a green focus. They will soon take the next step I believe and begin to look at a M&S/ Tesco “eco-store” concept here in the states.
I have a number of news pieces and features about this greening of retail in my newsletter/Blog Natural~Specialty Foods Memo. You can find it at: http://www.naturalspecialtyfoodsmemo.blogspot.com