December 29, 2025
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Are US Small Business Owners Right To Be Optimistic About Sales Growth in 2026?
According to the most recent data put forth by Comerica in its 2026 Small Business Pulse Index, U.S. small business owners are “squarely optimistic” about their business prospects in the year ahead, with four-fifths (80%) suggesting that they are “confident in their future success.” Only a slightly smaller cohort of respondents (79%) indicated that they were expecting sales growth in 2026.
“Small businesses have navigated a year filled with challenges, from tariffs and inflation to a prolonged government shutdown – yet their optimism remains unwavering,” Larry Franco, Comerica Bank EVP and National Director of Retail & Small Business Banking, said.
“This spirit speaks volumes about the adaptability and determination of America’s entrepreneurs as they prepare for growth in 2026,” he added.
Despite the index being registered at 55.5 points, down from 56 points in Q3 2025, this was only a marginal downturn and a general sense of optimism was the message delivered by Comerica. The federal government shutdown affected about one-third of small businesses, with the remainder noting that they had been unaffected by the event.
Despite Optimism Among Small Business Owners, Inflation and Tariff Concerns Persist
Among the study’s further findings:
- Speaking of the aforementioned confidence, the South was the region playing host to the most optimistic business owners (83% indicated confidence for 2026), and tech firms (93%), health care enterprises (90%), and businesses with 10 or more employees (88%) exhibited notable levels of confidence for the year-ahead period. Housing and real estate firms, by contrast, came in at the lowest confidence level (67%).
- Of the 79% of those polled who envisioned sales growth next year, the average projected level of growth was pegged at nearly 8% (7.9% to be precise). Tech and construction firms were most confident of their continued success, while sole proprietorships and retailers showed more caution as to next year’s promise.
- Of the top three concerns brought forth by American small business owners, inflation topped the list (23%), with tariffs taking the No. 2 position on the podium (14%). Rounding out the trio was government policies and/or regulations (11%).
- Perhaps unsurprisingly, operational efficiency improvements were cited as the most popular top priority for 2026 (with 48% of respondents saying as much), and nearly half (45%) of tech firms laid out plans to integrate new technologies.
“Policy shifts, from tariffs to interest rate cuts, are reshaping how small businesses operate. While trade challenges have driven rising costs and supply chain disruptions, many owners are responding with creativity and leveraging lower borrowing costs to invest and innovate, signaling a proactive approach to growth in 2026,” Franco concluded.
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Warren Shoulberg
Senior Contributor, The Robin Report
Doug Garnett
President, Protonik
Richard Hernandez
Merchant Director
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Discussion Questions
Do you believe that the Comerica survey data jives with the reality of current small business owners’ attitudes about the year ahead? Why or why not?
Does it make sense that retailers would be the most cautious segment of small business owners regarding sales growth opportunities in 2026? What could be the reasoning behind this data point?
Do you personally believe 2026 will be a strong year for retail? How about for smaller players?
Poll
Yes! We also have to figure in the falling interest rates, the true impact of the actual tariffs that are really levied, not the puffery that Washington says they will do, the actual costs of materials, and the real jobless rate that impacts people who are purchasing products.
I do not believe 2026 will be a year of growth for small businesses. Just this morning I was reading a blog post about how the past presidential year is damaging foundational potentials for small business owners. That said, small business owners must always retain some degree of hope for the future as that is required to arrive at a better future. Nothing is more deadly to a small business than the idea that they should bury their money in the back yard during hard times. Money and efforts must be active within the market for there to, ever, be future returns. In reality, it will be a difficult year but every difficult year also opens opportunities for those wise enough to see where the opportunity lies and who can purse those opportunities
Yes, the Comerica survey data broadly jives with current small business attitudes, but nuance matters. The Comerica Small Business Pulse Index shows that roughly 80 % of small business owners are somewhat or very confident about their outlook and that nearly four out of five expect sales growth in 2026, with an average projected increase of about 7.9 %. However, confidence is tempered by persistent concerns — inflation, tariff impacts, and uneven business conditions — and sectors like retail and sole proprietors are notably more cautious than tech or construction firms. In other words, while many owners say they expect growth, underlying economic uncertainties — especially policy unknowns like tariff decisions — mean that optimism coexists with genuine anxiety.
It does make sense that retailers would emerge as one of the most cautious segments in the survey. Unlike service or tech firms, retailers confront not only cost pressures from inflation, tariffs, and supply chain volatility but also direct consumer sentiment challenges. Despite solid holiday sales performance and a resilient consumer, broader sentiment remains mixed, with shoppers prioritizing value and essentials even as real purchasing power is squeezed. Recent small business reports also highlight ongoing inflation concerns and price pressures that disproportionately impact Main Street retailers relative to larger omnichannel competitors.
Personally, I believe 2026 has the potential to be a strong year for retail overall, supported by resilient consumer demand and healthy spending trends seen in late-2025 holiday data. But for smaller players, the outlook is more guarded. SMBs still face tighter margins, labor and hiring challenges, tariff uncertainties, and shifts in consumer behavior that could blunt growth even in a healthy macro retail environment. Given those headwinds, smaller retailers should remain cautious — prudent planning, strong cash-flow management, and flexible pricing strategies will be key to navigating an environment where optimism is real but tempered by material risk factors.
While most retailers I know are eternally optimistic — even as they complain endlessly about the retail business — being hopeful for 2026 is a risky proposition, With the utter uncertainty of what the president could or could not do it’s virtually impossible to make reasonable forecasts. Given the current situation, we are likely to see the true impact of tariffs in the first half of the year while unemployment and inflation both creep slowly but surely up. The stock market has been super-inflated by AI companies and if and when that bubble burst it will make the dot.com meltdown look mild. This is going to be one tricky year. Optimism? Maybe. Pessimism? Could be. Wildly different outcomes for different companies? Most probably.
America is in an untenable situation. The average age for purchase of a first home is now 40. Tariffs are causing huge damage to certain segments. Many customers turn to BNPL to purchase food, and our birth rate is plummeting because citizens can’t afford to have children. The reckoning may not come in 2026, but it’s on the way.
Retailers understandingly hold more caution for 2026 than other businesses. A more predictable year ahead will be good for both consumer and business confidence. If tariff shifts are largely settled in, then product costs are more generally known for retail pricing and operational profit. And if the Fed delivers another quarter point cut or more in 2026, money supply will loosen a bit more for business projects and the noose around consumer debt.
I think there are a lot of possible positive signs going into the next year. I believe there will be more loosening of discretionary spending and the tariff issues will better addressed to the public.
It’s looking more that way. Will be an interesting ride in 2026.
Do I think it jives with current reality? Not particularly. But then is it supposed to? Wouldn’t someone who’s unhappy now hope for better in the year ahead?
Personally I think we’ll see more of the same: most retailers will continue doing as they’ve been doing – instore selling will continue to lose ground to online, and the legacy retailers whose troubled stories have filled these pages will continue to struggle – and the govt in Washington will be more of a source of chaos than support.
Why shouldn’t small business owners be optimistic about 2026? I know, things aren’t all that great out there, but optimism has a lot to do with how things in your business turns out. So… what? Are they supposed to go into the new year voting against themselves? Nope.
Small business people have real skin in the game; if the business fails they have a lot more to lose than a job. Call me PollyAnna, but I have seen indie owners pull giant rabbits out of tiny hats, and I know I will see that happen again in 2026.
There’s much talk about the “K” recovery, which is in reality the “K” economy. It “K” is a reality; it does not bode well for small businesses. The bottom of the “K” is where the customers are for small businesses and small retailers. Economies react slowly. All the hurt from 2025 has not worked itself through the system yet?
While third-quarter GDP numbers were excellent at 4.3%, approximately 3.8 percentage points of that number is due to inflation. That is not a good project for the economy.
There’s a big difference between hope, optimism…and confidence. Am I hoping for a strong 2026? Absolutely. Am I optimistic? Randomly, occasionally. Am I confident that 2026 will be strong for retail? Not even slightly. So how does a retailer project demand at this point? How are they teeing up their OTB equations for 2026? We are rolling into January apparel markets for Fall 2026. That’s Fall 2026. Do I think a whole bunch of brands and retailers are using the word “strong” to anchor their planning for Fall 2026? No. It might be “cautious optimism” at best. How can I buy “X” amount of inventory (as late as possible} but also build in some upside just in case? That’s really difficult at the factory/supplychain level, si I would expect cautious optimism to win the day. There’s still too much political nonsense that can go off the rails to push the envelope in projecting demand deep into 2026.
There are a lot of pressures mounting as 2026 approaches. Even if demand holds up – and there are a lot of downside risks here – the cost environment looks very uncomfortable. The bottom line is that there is scope for some small businesses to do well, but not for everyone to succeed.
The optimism feels real, but it is grounded more in resilience than in clear visibility. Small business owners have spent the last few years operating through constant disruption, so confidence today often reflects their belief that they can adapt again, not that conditions will suddenly improve. Many have learned to stay lean, manage cash carefully, and make faster decisions, which naturally builds confidence heading into a new year.
It also makes sense that retailers are more cautious. They feel shifts in consumer behavior first, and they carry the risk of inventory, pricing, and demand all at once. For 2026, I expect mixed outcomes. Businesses that stay disciplined, focus on efficiency, and avoid overextending will find opportunities. Optimism helps, but execution and flexibility will ultimately determine who grows and who struggles.
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Yes! We also have to figure in the falling interest rates, the true impact of the actual tariffs that are really levied, not the puffery that Washington says they will do, the actual costs of materials, and the real jobless rate that impacts people who are purchasing products.
I do not believe 2026 will be a year of growth for small businesses. Just this morning I was reading a blog post about how the past presidential year is damaging foundational potentials for small business owners. That said, small business owners must always retain some degree of hope for the future as that is required to arrive at a better future. Nothing is more deadly to a small business than the idea that they should bury their money in the back yard during hard times. Money and efforts must be active within the market for there to, ever, be future returns. In reality, it will be a difficult year but every difficult year also opens opportunities for those wise enough to see where the opportunity lies and who can purse those opportunities
Yes, the Comerica survey data broadly jives with current small business attitudes, but nuance matters. The Comerica Small Business Pulse Index shows that roughly 80 % of small business owners are somewhat or very confident about their outlook and that nearly four out of five expect sales growth in 2026, with an average projected increase of about 7.9 %. However, confidence is tempered by persistent concerns — inflation, tariff impacts, and uneven business conditions — and sectors like retail and sole proprietors are notably more cautious than tech or construction firms. In other words, while many owners say they expect growth, underlying economic uncertainties — especially policy unknowns like tariff decisions — mean that optimism coexists with genuine anxiety.
It does make sense that retailers would emerge as one of the most cautious segments in the survey. Unlike service or tech firms, retailers confront not only cost pressures from inflation, tariffs, and supply chain volatility but also direct consumer sentiment challenges. Despite solid holiday sales performance and a resilient consumer, broader sentiment remains mixed, with shoppers prioritizing value and essentials even as real purchasing power is squeezed. Recent small business reports also highlight ongoing inflation concerns and price pressures that disproportionately impact Main Street retailers relative to larger omnichannel competitors.
Personally, I believe 2026 has the potential to be a strong year for retail overall, supported by resilient consumer demand and healthy spending trends seen in late-2025 holiday data. But for smaller players, the outlook is more guarded. SMBs still face tighter margins, labor and hiring challenges, tariff uncertainties, and shifts in consumer behavior that could blunt growth even in a healthy macro retail environment. Given those headwinds, smaller retailers should remain cautious — prudent planning, strong cash-flow management, and flexible pricing strategies will be key to navigating an environment where optimism is real but tempered by material risk factors.
While most retailers I know are eternally optimistic — even as they complain endlessly about the retail business — being hopeful for 2026 is a risky proposition, With the utter uncertainty of what the president could or could not do it’s virtually impossible to make reasonable forecasts. Given the current situation, we are likely to see the true impact of tariffs in the first half of the year while unemployment and inflation both creep slowly but surely up. The stock market has been super-inflated by AI companies and if and when that bubble burst it will make the dot.com meltdown look mild. This is going to be one tricky year. Optimism? Maybe. Pessimism? Could be. Wildly different outcomes for different companies? Most probably.
America is in an untenable situation. The average age for purchase of a first home is now 40. Tariffs are causing huge damage to certain segments. Many customers turn to BNPL to purchase food, and our birth rate is plummeting because citizens can’t afford to have children. The reckoning may not come in 2026, but it’s on the way.
Retailers understandingly hold more caution for 2026 than other businesses. A more predictable year ahead will be good for both consumer and business confidence. If tariff shifts are largely settled in, then product costs are more generally known for retail pricing and operational profit. And if the Fed delivers another quarter point cut or more in 2026, money supply will loosen a bit more for business projects and the noose around consumer debt.
I think there are a lot of possible positive signs going into the next year. I believe there will be more loosening of discretionary spending and the tariff issues will better addressed to the public.
It’s looking more that way. Will be an interesting ride in 2026.
Do I think it jives with current reality? Not particularly. But then is it supposed to? Wouldn’t someone who’s unhappy now hope for better in the year ahead?
Personally I think we’ll see more of the same: most retailers will continue doing as they’ve been doing – instore selling will continue to lose ground to online, and the legacy retailers whose troubled stories have filled these pages will continue to struggle – and the govt in Washington will be more of a source of chaos than support.
Why shouldn’t small business owners be optimistic about 2026? I know, things aren’t all that great out there, but optimism has a lot to do with how things in your business turns out. So… what? Are they supposed to go into the new year voting against themselves? Nope.
Small business people have real skin in the game; if the business fails they have a lot more to lose than a job. Call me PollyAnna, but I have seen indie owners pull giant rabbits out of tiny hats, and I know I will see that happen again in 2026.
There’s much talk about the “K” recovery, which is in reality the “K” economy. It “K” is a reality; it does not bode well for small businesses. The bottom of the “K” is where the customers are for small businesses and small retailers. Economies react slowly. All the hurt from 2025 has not worked itself through the system yet?
While third-quarter GDP numbers were excellent at 4.3%, approximately 3.8 percentage points of that number is due to inflation. That is not a good project for the economy.
There’s a big difference between hope, optimism…and confidence. Am I hoping for a strong 2026? Absolutely. Am I optimistic? Randomly, occasionally. Am I confident that 2026 will be strong for retail? Not even slightly. So how does a retailer project demand at this point? How are they teeing up their OTB equations for 2026? We are rolling into January apparel markets for Fall 2026. That’s Fall 2026. Do I think a whole bunch of brands and retailers are using the word “strong” to anchor their planning for Fall 2026? No. It might be “cautious optimism” at best. How can I buy “X” amount of inventory (as late as possible} but also build in some upside just in case? That’s really difficult at the factory/supplychain level, si I would expect cautious optimism to win the day. There’s still too much political nonsense that can go off the rails to push the envelope in projecting demand deep into 2026.
There are a lot of pressures mounting as 2026 approaches. Even if demand holds up – and there are a lot of downside risks here – the cost environment looks very uncomfortable. The bottom line is that there is scope for some small businesses to do well, but not for everyone to succeed.
The optimism feels real, but it is grounded more in resilience than in clear visibility. Small business owners have spent the last few years operating through constant disruption, so confidence today often reflects their belief that they can adapt again, not that conditions will suddenly improve. Many have learned to stay lean, manage cash carefully, and make faster decisions, which naturally builds confidence heading into a new year.
It also makes sense that retailers are more cautious. They feel shifts in consumer behavior first, and they carry the risk of inventory, pricing, and demand all at once. For 2026, I expect mixed outcomes. Businesses that stay disciplined, focus on efficiency, and avoid overextending will find opportunities. Optimism helps, but execution and flexibility will ultimately determine who grows and who struggles.