July 1, 2015
Retailers see green with the red, white and blue
Americans are expected to spend big as they go all red, white and blue for the Fourth of July holiday weekend, according to the National Retail Federation’s (NRF) "2015 Independence Day Survey" conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics.
According to NRF, more than 64 percent of consumers (156 million total) will be taking part in July 4 activities such as attending cookouts or picnics this year. They’ll spend an average of $71.23 per household, up from $68.16 last year. Total spending for food and drinks for the holiday will reach $6.6 billion.
As for other holiday activities:
- Forty-three percent will watch fireworks or attend other community events;
- Twelve percent will go to a parade;
- Nine percent will travel or go on vacation.
Sales are expected to benefit from lower gas prices as 78 percent say it will not impact their spending for the holiday. Last year, 70 percent said they wouldn’t let high gas prices get in their way.
Sources: Sears, Gap, Macy’s
"Consumers this summer and for the 4th of July will take advantage of lower gas prices to head to the beach or get together with family — something they’ve had to think long and hard about in recent years with higher energy costs and limited budgets," said Pam Goodfellow, consumer insights director at Prosper Insights, in a statement.
The good news for retailers shouldn’t end this weekend, according to NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay.
"The busiest half of the year for retailers is about to begin, and with economic conditions swaying in consumers’ favor more so this year than last, many seem eager to take advantage of retailers’ promotions," he said.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index increased 6.8 points to 101.4 in June providing more fodder for optimism.
In an e-mail to reporters, Chris G. Christopher, Jr., director of consumer markets at IHS Global Insight, wrote, "This is a good report. Elevated levels of consumer confidence are likely to assist back-to-school spending in the upcoming months. The back-to-school season is the second most important shopping season for many retailers, and provides an indication of how much consumers are willing to open their wallets for the crucial holiday season that follows."
BrainTrust
Paula Rosenblum
Co-founder, RSR Research
Kai Clarke
CEO, President- American Retail Consultants
Recent Discussions
Discussion Questions
Do you see Fourth of July revenues as a bellwether for the retail industry going into the second half the year? What are your expectations for industry performance over the next six months? What will be the biggest trends and other factors affecting the business?
Poll
I’ve never seen July 4 as a harbinger of things to come, even when I was in the party supply business. There are just too many variables and, honestly, the numbers are just too small in any category but food and beverage to draw big conclusions.
I don’t even think back-to-school is what it used to be. When school is starting in August, you can expect an uptick in office supplies and electronics, but apparel? Not so much.
The best harbinger of holiday sales is really Halloween, but that’s late if you’re looking to make early predictions. Still, with Halloween falling on a Saturday night this year, I would expect those sales to be the highest in years (absolute best day — adult parties on the very day and trick-or-treat on Friday.)
We also won’t know much until we know what happens with Greece. Retail is global now, and a crash in the E.U. would affect the U.S. as well.
The Fourth of July will kick-start a better retail selling season going into the second half of the year. As long as the economy continues on the current pace along with the presidential race heating up, it will help consumers feel good and then spend more. It will be a great back-to-school, Halloween, and then an even better Christmas season. However, if Greece and PR continue to bring the economy down they will have a ripple effect on the economy and then the retail industry.
This holiday is one that drives probably the most actual expenditures for Americans of any of the mid-year holidays, even more than Memorial Day. Also Americans are getting tired of the “slow” economic recovery and want to splurge a bit. Just look at auto sales — through the roof again this year. So merchants need to capitalize on this weekend’s sales opportunities (although I suppose it’s way too late to start planning for that!). I do think the next six months will continue to show signs of recovery and product tonnage will increase, however deep discounts will most likely result in flat revenue growth.
The genuine market indicators are not painting a pretty picture for the near- or long-term economic climate. If the financial experts were to divulge an open and easy to understand economic outlook based on the actual results the awful news would only seem insurmountable. Businesses and individuals seem content with blaming people at the top or whole organizations in their search for the cause of this misery. Our economic predicament(s) will only end through a combined effort to engage the present and future with the will to succeed and with a total disregard for fault and negativity. The only answer for this mess is a lot of hard work with no time to waste on conjecture.
Yes, the 4th of July is the start of the biggest 6 months of the year, and we should expect that continued prosperity, growth and positive industry performance will continue. We can expect that increased sales of homes, cars and consumer electronics will continue during this period.
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I’ve never seen July 4 as a harbinger of things to come, even when I was in the party supply business. There are just too many variables and, honestly, the numbers are just too small in any category but food and beverage to draw big conclusions.
I don’t even think back-to-school is what it used to be. When school is starting in August, you can expect an uptick in office supplies and electronics, but apparel? Not so much.
The best harbinger of holiday sales is really Halloween, but that’s late if you’re looking to make early predictions. Still, with Halloween falling on a Saturday night this year, I would expect those sales to be the highest in years (absolute best day — adult parties on the very day and trick-or-treat on Friday.)
We also won’t know much until we know what happens with Greece. Retail is global now, and a crash in the E.U. would affect the U.S. as well.
The Fourth of July will kick-start a better retail selling season going into the second half of the year. As long as the economy continues on the current pace along with the presidential race heating up, it will help consumers feel good and then spend more. It will be a great back-to-school, Halloween, and then an even better Christmas season. However, if Greece and PR continue to bring the economy down they will have a ripple effect on the economy and then the retail industry.
This holiday is one that drives probably the most actual expenditures for Americans of any of the mid-year holidays, even more than Memorial Day. Also Americans are getting tired of the “slow” economic recovery and want to splurge a bit. Just look at auto sales — through the roof again this year. So merchants need to capitalize on this weekend’s sales opportunities (although I suppose it’s way too late to start planning for that!). I do think the next six months will continue to show signs of recovery and product tonnage will increase, however deep discounts will most likely result in flat revenue growth.
The genuine market indicators are not painting a pretty picture for the near- or long-term economic climate. If the financial experts were to divulge an open and easy to understand economic outlook based on the actual results the awful news would only seem insurmountable. Businesses and individuals seem content with blaming people at the top or whole organizations in their search for the cause of this misery. Our economic predicament(s) will only end through a combined effort to engage the present and future with the will to succeed and with a total disregard for fault and negativity. The only answer for this mess is a lot of hard work with no time to waste on conjecture.
Yes, the 4th of July is the start of the biggest 6 months of the year, and we should expect that continued prosperity, growth and positive industry performance will continue. We can expect that increased sales of homes, cars and consumer electronics will continue during this period.