May 29, 2007

How Will Gas Prices Impact Shopping Trip Behavior?

Special to GMDC

As gas prices soar over $3 a gallon in many areas, Americans are finally beginning to react by curtailing automobile usage for the first time in decades, and retailers could be among those to feel the impact of this major reversal.

According to a recently published USA Today survey and analysis of federal highway data, Americans drove only 0.3 percent more miles in March 2007 versus March 2006, and this follows a 1.9 percent year-over-year decline in miles driven in February 2007.

To put it into sharper focus, over the past 18 months, according to the article, the U.S. population has grown at an annualized rate of about 1 percent, so this year’s downward statistics announce loudly and clearly that the average American is driving fewer miles.

In contrast to the current curtailment, between 1980 and 2000, there was an average yearly increase in mileage driven by Americans of 2.7 percent, and between 1995 and 2005 the average annual increase was 2.2 percent. Taking the five years from 2000 to 2005, the average yearly increment in miles was 1.9 percent.

Estimates are that the number of miles per day is 200-300 million less than if the 2000-2005 average 1.9 percent increase had been sustained. The decrease in miles driven daily could translate into a million or more gallons of gas.

This long predicted and frequently debated development has now become a reality, and alteration in shopping patterns and behavior will emerge as part and parcel of it.

Several factors can account for the sharp drop, according to the USA Today article, including greater usage of public transportation and demographic shifts to more urban living. Other factors are slower growth in minority and women drivers, as well as the fact that people over 55 tend to drive less, an expanding portion of the overall population. But central to the decision to not drive as many miles is the soaring cost of gas. According to the American Automobile Association as reported in USA Today, the mid-May average price of a gallon of regular gas was $3.11. An SUV fill-up can cost $60.

Retailers, and the manufacturers that supply them, will soon be feeling the affects of the trend. A USA Today Gallup Poll indicates that “a majority of Americans say they have changed their driving habits in light of higher gas prices.” In the poll, 70 percent of the respondents said that they would consolidate errands to reduce driving, something that directly affects retailers.

There’s another threat. As Americans scramble to cope with higher gas prices, it’s important to realize that transportation costs, at 18 percent, are second only to housing expenses in U.S. households. As transportation costs rise, other parts of the household budget will suffer, and, since housing costs tend to be more inelastic than other expenditures, spending on consumables could conceivably be under pressure.

Discussion Questions: Is the impact that high gas
prices are having on driving patterns an opportunity or a challenge for
one-stop-shopping supermarkets and convenience oriented drug stores? Now
that the decrease in driving is here, what tactics and strategies should
mass-market retailers deploy?

Discussion Questions

Poll

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Mark Lilien
Mark Lilien

People want to make one stop shopping a goal, but they’re actually adopting “fewer stop shopping.” And gas price increases make internet shopping more appealing than ever. Unlike the Katrina gas price increase, recent gas price hikes are more likely to sustain themselves. Most people aren’t going to exchange their cars for high mileage hybrids this week, so they’ll try to drive less. With more and more entertainment available electronically, and more apparel online (the NRF says that 10% of apparel will be purchased via the internet), the need to drive will decline.

Also note that undocumented people are getting increased resistance from state motor vehicle offices. The undocumented ride bikes and take public transportation because they cannot easily get driver licenses or register cars of their own. And the undocumented are a fast-growing major demographic.

Michael L. Howatt
Michael L. Howatt

What seems odd about the comments made so far is that the panel is assuming consumer’s haven’t already reduced their trip destinations. This is not the first time gas prices have soared. My contention is that most people already have shops they visit to and from work (or school) for “essentials.” They have already established a pattern for eliminating non-essentials. My guess is that more stock-up trips are occurring and therefore the one-stop shops will profit the most.

Li McClelland
Li McClelland

The same expensive gas that fuels the family car also fuels the Peapod, UPS and DHL trucks. Online shopping will work for basics only until delivery costs make it unfeasible, and that could be soon.

John Lofstock
John Lofstock

I am going to take a completely different approach and suggest that any numbers indicating Americans are doing less driving has nothing to do with fuel prices. In fact, I think Americans are as dependent on their vehicles as ever and will continue hitting the road in record numbers regardless of $3 pump prices. That may change if prices approach $5 per gallon, but despite many catastrophic predictions to hit the $5 mark, the average U.S price has never really come close to $3.50, only surpassing the $3.25 mark for the first time last week (and was as low as $2.213 in January).

I think what you are seeing when fuel prices rise is a little more carpooling to work and perhaps some people take public transportation, but that has a very minor effect on petroleum consumption or store visits. The story notes, “The decrease in miles driven daily could translate into a million or more gallons of gas.” This sounds like quite a bit. But, relatively speaking, it is not. According to the Energy Information Administration, current U.S. fuel consumption sits at about 392 million gallons per day. A million gallons is merely a drop in the bucket.

If anything, I’d bet retail competition is having the biggest impact on driving habits. Commuter roads to and from the office are jammed with convenience stores, coffee houses, supermarkets and mass merchandisers. There is no need for consumers to drive out of their way to do their shopping. Plus, the country’s infrastructure is slowly changing. Museums, stadiums, ball parks and even large malls and shopping centers are being built in downtown areas that offer train and subway access as a way to avoid sitting in traffic.

The end result is that many things are more convenient to get to and drivers don’t have as far to go to get there. Don’t mistake that for a reluctance to get in the car and drive as a result of gas prices.

David Livingston
David Livingston

I don’t see much of a change. We have this discussion every time gas prices peak up a bit. And nothing really happens. Maybe if gas prices really went up to something like $10 per gallon, then we might see a change in shopping patterns.

Ed Dennis
Ed Dennis

At times like these we have a choice. We can whine about circumstances or we can look for a way to profit from them. I would encourage everyone to try and find companies that provide solutions and invest in them.

Well, what’s a solution? By solutions, I don’t mean magnets around your gas line or miracle additives in the gas tank. Look simpler; look for solutions that keep you from using gas–pizza delivery for one! How many can you think of? Online Banking, internet shopping, each of these offers a means of reducing household gas cost. Invest in solutions, use these available solutions and leave the car in the garage. That way you stand a chance of profiting from the gas crunch and also will reduce demand. A Win/Win anyway you look at it!

Ben Ball
Ben Ball

I’m with Charles Walsh on this one…closer (and maybe smaller) wins. Consumers react based on perception versus paradigm. Perception is that transportation related fuel prices are a substantial portion of our net spending (usually not true for most families) and the paradigm is “closer is cheaper to get to.” Of course, mathematics unmask this equation. If a consumer really drives fifty miles to Costco once a week and buys everything they need, versus three trips a week to the local supermarket and a couple of fill-in stops at the Walgreen’s or Wawa, their total outlay for fuel and food will almost certainly be less. But we won’t behave that way.

Mary Baum
Mary Baum

I’ve been waiting for years to see when consumers would start shopping online for basics–the things people really don’t need to see and touch every single time we buy them but that often take a trip to Office Depot or the drugstore just to stock up.

Given the convenience factor and a little promotion around the concept of shipping charges being competitive with–if not lower than–the cost of the gas to go out and get those things, I think we could see a significant opportunity there.

Susan Rider
Susan Rider

Consumers are tightening their belts when it comes to travel patterns. For the retailer, it’s about location. If you’re centrally located within a mass population, odds are you will not see a decline that others who have built 20 miles or so away for cheaper land prices will. Gas prices are top of mind for everyone; how could they not be when you’re passing out $50 plus dollars weekly? Higher gas prices mean more consolidated shopping, fewer trips and more online shopping.

What can retailers do to combat this? Give gas cards with over a certain dollar purchase instead of discounts. In certain areas it may pay to create a shopping trolley system. Pick the shoppers up and take your shoppers home. Until the consumers have had a couple of years to adjust their budgets for higher prices, there will certainly be a squeeze.

Bill Robinson
Bill Robinson

Higher fuel costs mean fewer shopping visits, higher dollar transactions per visit, and little consumer tolerance for stockouts. Shoppers want to maximize their fuel dollars and their time. If you can do those things for them, you’ll earn their loyalty faster than in the retail world where gas is cheap.

To meet the challenge of gas-poor shoppers, Retailers must develop metrics to rigorously monitor trends as gas prices continue to skyrocket. For example, if gas goes up another dollar or two, what impact might that have on number of shoppers and average dollar?

If you don’t count and analyze the number of shoppers arriving in your store, now is the time. There are a number of good reliable people counter products available. House the counts in your data warehouse, by time of day. You’ll want to compare customer count to last year and in comparable stores. Measure conversion rate for each day of the week, down to hour if you can. With fewer shoppers buying more, you’ll want to rethink store staffing based on customer count, not sales.

You’ll also want to measure average customer sale, again by time of the week. To many service-oriented retailers, average sale is closely related to staffing levels. With higher fuel prices your shopper will want to stay longer at your stores to take care of all her needs. Ambiance is doubly important. Your people need to be ready with special order services to close sales even when merchandise is out of stock.

Speaking of which, do you track how many of your stores are out of stock on your key items? Your time-starved, gas-poor shoppers will have little tolerance for your inventory problems. Tweak your Business Intelligence software to alert you when key items are about to go out of stock. And respond aggressively.

Sue Nicholls
Sue Nicholls

It would be interesting to do some consumer analysis to see how far consumers were willing to drive to get to the nearest Wal-Mart or Costco 6 months ago, compared to in 6 months from now, based on the increase in gas prices. The calculation that consumers will have to determine is the cost savings in the total shopping basket at the cheaper outlets (vs. if they purchased at a different outlet closer to home) vs. the cost of gas to drive to the outlet.

Either way, their total shopping trip will cost more, either through increased gas prices, or increased costs for shopping at a higher cost outlet, if they purchase the same products. So if they are on a specific budget, their basket size will probably go down accordingly.

Dick Seesel
Dick Seesel

Until stores release their May sales data, most speculation about gas prices’ impact on shopping patterns is just that…speculation. April sales were clearly impacted by the Easter shift as well as unusually bad weather in most of the country. If May numbers look bad, it’s valid to conclude that the high price of gas is actually causing some belt-tightening, along with the ripple effects of the housing market declines over the past year.

If gas prices do affect shopping patterns, who stands to gain and lose? Will mall-based retailers benefit because of the “one stop shopping” factor? Or will power-center retailers (Kohl’s, Target, Walgreens, Best Buy) be in a better position because of their convenience-based real estate strategies?

Some true belt-tightening would tend to hurt “discretionary” retailers first, with the exception of luxury stores that remain above the fray. As one of the commentators pointed out, the biggest winner may continue to be online retailing, which takes the cost of driving out of the equation entirely.

Charles P. Walsh
Charles P. Walsh

Increasing energy costs coupled with alternative fuel development putting pressure on grain prices will undoubtedly drive the cost of food up. Food, Housing and Transportation expenses as a percent of American Families Household income will drive behavior changes including;

– decrease in purchases of non-essentials
– demand for “convenience” in shopping (smaller, closer)
– decrease in need for wide assortment
– pressure on restaurant comps

It is my belief that fuel prices coupled with other changes in American’s values are creating a retailing atmosphere that will value companies like Aldi (deep discount, narrow assortment, all private label, small footprint, neighborhood locations) making them a force to be reckoned with. Tesco’s entry is timed perfectly to take advantage of this growing trend with their fresh offerings in a smaller footprint conveniently located.

Woe to those whose footprints echo the era of category killer, mega store, wide assortments that require major volume to be profitable. The tide may be turning against this model.

Gene Hoffman
Gene Hoffman

People drive more or less in a direct relationship to their comfort level, which is created by their need for personal freedom to do whatever they desire, and their irritation level, caused by traffic congestion and rising fuel costs. But not all sectors of our economically-diverse society are equally affected by gas prices.

If one-stop shopping isn’t already their habit, most boutique and unrestricted shoppers will try to resist changing their comfortable patterns. They will modify their driving patterns or look for other shopping alternatives such as the Internet, catalogs and other venues. Nonetheless, the current gas-price situation is an opportunity for mass retailers to promote the benefits of one-stop shopping and hopefully they’ll come up with new compelling appeals for doing that. As that trend might unfold further, I still suggest that you don’t sell your Gucci or Coach stock. Their customer won’t be affected by rising gas prices.

Phillip T. Straniero
Phillip T. Straniero

Many people I have spoken with are cutting back on their “disposable” driving. In the recent past, people would go to the mall or go to one day sales that appealed to their curiosity or desire to browse…I don’t see that happening much longer. I am willing to bet that people will increasingly patronize businesses that are located on the direct path between their homes and their workplace (or schools). When I hear complaints that it costs almost $20 to fill a 5-gallon gas can to run the lawnmower I think we have reached a level where people will change their habits in order to save money…retailers that have gasoline stations and gasoline savings programs will now have a real competitive advantage!

Leon Nicholas
Leon Nicholas

For retailers, we expect that they will encounter shoppers’ destination reduction, meaning that stand-alone outlets are most likely to face declines. Once in store, though, consumers are likely to cut down on discretionary/”want” purchases, which are typically higher-margin. The impact will be greatest on those consumers who are typically convinced to “trade-up,” not those whose usual shopping behavior is already upscale.

Recent gas price increases have not overtaken gains in disposable income, though. As a result of these and stock market gains, consumer confidence remains high and should buttress consumer spending overall.

David Biernbaum

The overall economy is intertwined and gas prices are one factor that impacts directly and indirectly a large number of trends and results. At first glance it’s a stretch to believe that the rising gas prices will have too great an impact on retail where numbers of shoppers are concerned particularly in channels such as food, drug, and mass, because stores are plentiful along well traveled routes to and from work, and not out of the way from most neighborhoods. Even in rural areas, most residents and employees live close enough to these stores without going out of the way to spend extra gasoline money. However, the real impact will be in the numbers of items that consumers buy because gas prices are eating away at disposable income.

Steven Roelofs
Steven Roelofs

Gains in disposable income? Not anyone I know. In fact, thanks to outsourcing that eliminated my corporate bonus and profit sharing, I make less today than three years ago. Add to that increases in transit fares and electricity rates that have doubled (hitting me both with my own bill for electric heat and my condo assessment for lighting common areas), and I have myself a situation.

I don’t drive, but I think my situation is comparable to people who do. Here’s how I’ve coped with having less money. First to go: daily Starbucks latte; I now make time to make coffee at home in the morning and I go without at work. Next to go: shopping for basic clothing like jeans, socks, underwear, T-shirts and polo shirts at department stores; Tar-jay is my new best friend. Also gone: trips that take me out of my way; I shop in my neighborhood or in the Loop or along the way. Forget about renting a car and driving for what seems like half a day to IKEA. And before I go to a restaurant, I eat something at home so I can order just an appetizer and soup/salad. Dessert I’ve also got at home.

In short, you’ll see a little bit of everything that everyone has mentioned here. Doing without. Doing with less. Doing with cheaper. Staying closer to home.

18 Comments
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Mark Lilien
Mark Lilien

People want to make one stop shopping a goal, but they’re actually adopting “fewer stop shopping.” And gas price increases make internet shopping more appealing than ever. Unlike the Katrina gas price increase, recent gas price hikes are more likely to sustain themselves. Most people aren’t going to exchange their cars for high mileage hybrids this week, so they’ll try to drive less. With more and more entertainment available electronically, and more apparel online (the NRF says that 10% of apparel will be purchased via the internet), the need to drive will decline.

Also note that undocumented people are getting increased resistance from state motor vehicle offices. The undocumented ride bikes and take public transportation because they cannot easily get driver licenses or register cars of their own. And the undocumented are a fast-growing major demographic.

Michael L. Howatt
Michael L. Howatt

What seems odd about the comments made so far is that the panel is assuming consumer’s haven’t already reduced their trip destinations. This is not the first time gas prices have soared. My contention is that most people already have shops they visit to and from work (or school) for “essentials.” They have already established a pattern for eliminating non-essentials. My guess is that more stock-up trips are occurring and therefore the one-stop shops will profit the most.

Li McClelland
Li McClelland

The same expensive gas that fuels the family car also fuels the Peapod, UPS and DHL trucks. Online shopping will work for basics only until delivery costs make it unfeasible, and that could be soon.

John Lofstock
John Lofstock

I am going to take a completely different approach and suggest that any numbers indicating Americans are doing less driving has nothing to do with fuel prices. In fact, I think Americans are as dependent on their vehicles as ever and will continue hitting the road in record numbers regardless of $3 pump prices. That may change if prices approach $5 per gallon, but despite many catastrophic predictions to hit the $5 mark, the average U.S price has never really come close to $3.50, only surpassing the $3.25 mark for the first time last week (and was as low as $2.213 in January).

I think what you are seeing when fuel prices rise is a little more carpooling to work and perhaps some people take public transportation, but that has a very minor effect on petroleum consumption or store visits. The story notes, “The decrease in miles driven daily could translate into a million or more gallons of gas.” This sounds like quite a bit. But, relatively speaking, it is not. According to the Energy Information Administration, current U.S. fuel consumption sits at about 392 million gallons per day. A million gallons is merely a drop in the bucket.

If anything, I’d bet retail competition is having the biggest impact on driving habits. Commuter roads to and from the office are jammed with convenience stores, coffee houses, supermarkets and mass merchandisers. There is no need for consumers to drive out of their way to do their shopping. Plus, the country’s infrastructure is slowly changing. Museums, stadiums, ball parks and even large malls and shopping centers are being built in downtown areas that offer train and subway access as a way to avoid sitting in traffic.

The end result is that many things are more convenient to get to and drivers don’t have as far to go to get there. Don’t mistake that for a reluctance to get in the car and drive as a result of gas prices.

David Livingston
David Livingston

I don’t see much of a change. We have this discussion every time gas prices peak up a bit. And nothing really happens. Maybe if gas prices really went up to something like $10 per gallon, then we might see a change in shopping patterns.

Ed Dennis
Ed Dennis

At times like these we have a choice. We can whine about circumstances or we can look for a way to profit from them. I would encourage everyone to try and find companies that provide solutions and invest in them.

Well, what’s a solution? By solutions, I don’t mean magnets around your gas line or miracle additives in the gas tank. Look simpler; look for solutions that keep you from using gas–pizza delivery for one! How many can you think of? Online Banking, internet shopping, each of these offers a means of reducing household gas cost. Invest in solutions, use these available solutions and leave the car in the garage. That way you stand a chance of profiting from the gas crunch and also will reduce demand. A Win/Win anyway you look at it!

Ben Ball
Ben Ball

I’m with Charles Walsh on this one…closer (and maybe smaller) wins. Consumers react based on perception versus paradigm. Perception is that transportation related fuel prices are a substantial portion of our net spending (usually not true for most families) and the paradigm is “closer is cheaper to get to.” Of course, mathematics unmask this equation. If a consumer really drives fifty miles to Costco once a week and buys everything they need, versus three trips a week to the local supermarket and a couple of fill-in stops at the Walgreen’s or Wawa, their total outlay for fuel and food will almost certainly be less. But we won’t behave that way.

Mary Baum
Mary Baum

I’ve been waiting for years to see when consumers would start shopping online for basics–the things people really don’t need to see and touch every single time we buy them but that often take a trip to Office Depot or the drugstore just to stock up.

Given the convenience factor and a little promotion around the concept of shipping charges being competitive with–if not lower than–the cost of the gas to go out and get those things, I think we could see a significant opportunity there.

Susan Rider
Susan Rider

Consumers are tightening their belts when it comes to travel patterns. For the retailer, it’s about location. If you’re centrally located within a mass population, odds are you will not see a decline that others who have built 20 miles or so away for cheaper land prices will. Gas prices are top of mind for everyone; how could they not be when you’re passing out $50 plus dollars weekly? Higher gas prices mean more consolidated shopping, fewer trips and more online shopping.

What can retailers do to combat this? Give gas cards with over a certain dollar purchase instead of discounts. In certain areas it may pay to create a shopping trolley system. Pick the shoppers up and take your shoppers home. Until the consumers have had a couple of years to adjust their budgets for higher prices, there will certainly be a squeeze.

Bill Robinson
Bill Robinson

Higher fuel costs mean fewer shopping visits, higher dollar transactions per visit, and little consumer tolerance for stockouts. Shoppers want to maximize their fuel dollars and their time. If you can do those things for them, you’ll earn their loyalty faster than in the retail world where gas is cheap.

To meet the challenge of gas-poor shoppers, Retailers must develop metrics to rigorously monitor trends as gas prices continue to skyrocket. For example, if gas goes up another dollar or two, what impact might that have on number of shoppers and average dollar?

If you don’t count and analyze the number of shoppers arriving in your store, now is the time. There are a number of good reliable people counter products available. House the counts in your data warehouse, by time of day. You’ll want to compare customer count to last year and in comparable stores. Measure conversion rate for each day of the week, down to hour if you can. With fewer shoppers buying more, you’ll want to rethink store staffing based on customer count, not sales.

You’ll also want to measure average customer sale, again by time of the week. To many service-oriented retailers, average sale is closely related to staffing levels. With higher fuel prices your shopper will want to stay longer at your stores to take care of all her needs. Ambiance is doubly important. Your people need to be ready with special order services to close sales even when merchandise is out of stock.

Speaking of which, do you track how many of your stores are out of stock on your key items? Your time-starved, gas-poor shoppers will have little tolerance for your inventory problems. Tweak your Business Intelligence software to alert you when key items are about to go out of stock. And respond aggressively.

Sue Nicholls
Sue Nicholls

It would be interesting to do some consumer analysis to see how far consumers were willing to drive to get to the nearest Wal-Mart or Costco 6 months ago, compared to in 6 months from now, based on the increase in gas prices. The calculation that consumers will have to determine is the cost savings in the total shopping basket at the cheaper outlets (vs. if they purchased at a different outlet closer to home) vs. the cost of gas to drive to the outlet.

Either way, their total shopping trip will cost more, either through increased gas prices, or increased costs for shopping at a higher cost outlet, if they purchase the same products. So if they are on a specific budget, their basket size will probably go down accordingly.

Dick Seesel
Dick Seesel

Until stores release their May sales data, most speculation about gas prices’ impact on shopping patterns is just that…speculation. April sales were clearly impacted by the Easter shift as well as unusually bad weather in most of the country. If May numbers look bad, it’s valid to conclude that the high price of gas is actually causing some belt-tightening, along with the ripple effects of the housing market declines over the past year.

If gas prices do affect shopping patterns, who stands to gain and lose? Will mall-based retailers benefit because of the “one stop shopping” factor? Or will power-center retailers (Kohl’s, Target, Walgreens, Best Buy) be in a better position because of their convenience-based real estate strategies?

Some true belt-tightening would tend to hurt “discretionary” retailers first, with the exception of luxury stores that remain above the fray. As one of the commentators pointed out, the biggest winner may continue to be online retailing, which takes the cost of driving out of the equation entirely.

Charles P. Walsh
Charles P. Walsh

Increasing energy costs coupled with alternative fuel development putting pressure on grain prices will undoubtedly drive the cost of food up. Food, Housing and Transportation expenses as a percent of American Families Household income will drive behavior changes including;

– decrease in purchases of non-essentials
– demand for “convenience” in shopping (smaller, closer)
– decrease in need for wide assortment
– pressure on restaurant comps

It is my belief that fuel prices coupled with other changes in American’s values are creating a retailing atmosphere that will value companies like Aldi (deep discount, narrow assortment, all private label, small footprint, neighborhood locations) making them a force to be reckoned with. Tesco’s entry is timed perfectly to take advantage of this growing trend with their fresh offerings in a smaller footprint conveniently located.

Woe to those whose footprints echo the era of category killer, mega store, wide assortments that require major volume to be profitable. The tide may be turning against this model.

Gene Hoffman
Gene Hoffman

People drive more or less in a direct relationship to their comfort level, which is created by their need for personal freedom to do whatever they desire, and their irritation level, caused by traffic congestion and rising fuel costs. But not all sectors of our economically-diverse society are equally affected by gas prices.

If one-stop shopping isn’t already their habit, most boutique and unrestricted shoppers will try to resist changing their comfortable patterns. They will modify their driving patterns or look for other shopping alternatives such as the Internet, catalogs and other venues. Nonetheless, the current gas-price situation is an opportunity for mass retailers to promote the benefits of one-stop shopping and hopefully they’ll come up with new compelling appeals for doing that. As that trend might unfold further, I still suggest that you don’t sell your Gucci or Coach stock. Their customer won’t be affected by rising gas prices.

Phillip T. Straniero
Phillip T. Straniero

Many people I have spoken with are cutting back on their “disposable” driving. In the recent past, people would go to the mall or go to one day sales that appealed to their curiosity or desire to browse…I don’t see that happening much longer. I am willing to bet that people will increasingly patronize businesses that are located on the direct path between their homes and their workplace (or schools). When I hear complaints that it costs almost $20 to fill a 5-gallon gas can to run the lawnmower I think we have reached a level where people will change their habits in order to save money…retailers that have gasoline stations and gasoline savings programs will now have a real competitive advantage!

Leon Nicholas
Leon Nicholas

For retailers, we expect that they will encounter shoppers’ destination reduction, meaning that stand-alone outlets are most likely to face declines. Once in store, though, consumers are likely to cut down on discretionary/”want” purchases, which are typically higher-margin. The impact will be greatest on those consumers who are typically convinced to “trade-up,” not those whose usual shopping behavior is already upscale.

Recent gas price increases have not overtaken gains in disposable income, though. As a result of these and stock market gains, consumer confidence remains high and should buttress consumer spending overall.

David Biernbaum

The overall economy is intertwined and gas prices are one factor that impacts directly and indirectly a large number of trends and results. At first glance it’s a stretch to believe that the rising gas prices will have too great an impact on retail where numbers of shoppers are concerned particularly in channels such as food, drug, and mass, because stores are plentiful along well traveled routes to and from work, and not out of the way from most neighborhoods. Even in rural areas, most residents and employees live close enough to these stores without going out of the way to spend extra gasoline money. However, the real impact will be in the numbers of items that consumers buy because gas prices are eating away at disposable income.

Steven Roelofs
Steven Roelofs

Gains in disposable income? Not anyone I know. In fact, thanks to outsourcing that eliminated my corporate bonus and profit sharing, I make less today than three years ago. Add to that increases in transit fares and electricity rates that have doubled (hitting me both with my own bill for electric heat and my condo assessment for lighting common areas), and I have myself a situation.

I don’t drive, but I think my situation is comparable to people who do. Here’s how I’ve coped with having less money. First to go: daily Starbucks latte; I now make time to make coffee at home in the morning and I go without at work. Next to go: shopping for basic clothing like jeans, socks, underwear, T-shirts and polo shirts at department stores; Tar-jay is my new best friend. Also gone: trips that take me out of my way; I shop in my neighborhood or in the Loop or along the way. Forget about renting a car and driving for what seems like half a day to IKEA. And before I go to a restaurant, I eat something at home so I can order just an appetizer and soup/salad. Dessert I’ve also got at home.

In short, you’ll see a little bit of everything that everyone has mentioned here. Doing without. Doing with less. Doing with cheaper. Staying closer to home.

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