September 18, 2008
Christmas Arrives at Retail
By Tom Ryan
It’s still summer on the calendar, but Macy’s, Target and most other major retailers have already stocked their shelves with tree ornaments, lights and other Christmas decorations. With weak holiday forecasts arriving daily, stores are apparently hoping to lengthen the Christmas selling season.
As always in these situations, it’s hard to determine whether holiday selling is actually arriving earlier than normal. For example, Macy’s, which launched its famed Holiday Lane on Monday, told the Associated Press that it always starts its holiday selling every year around mid-September and said customers are already asking about decorations.
“We know that people make their plans. They have holiday parties they are already planning,” said Natalie Bushaw, the director of marketing at Macy’s. “They want to know what they’re going to have so they’re not rushing around last minute.”
But David Brennan, co-director of the Institute for Retailing Excellence at the University of St. Thomas, said the holiday season continually creeps earlier and earlier as retailers hope to cash in on a longer season. And with the economy faltering, many are hoping to make up for any shortfalls this holiday season by bringing goods in even earlier.
“I think what we see particularly this year because the anticipation of a soft Christmas season is people want to push that earlier on,” said Professor Brennan. “I think that consumers are going to hold onto their pocket books and credit cards more closely than they have in the past.”
Professor Brennan also said this year’s presidential race will weigh on holiday sales as well. When people don’t know which direction the country is going, they tend to tighten their spending, he asserted.
The arrival of holiday decorations comes as Deloitte & Touche predicted that
this upcoming holiday season could be the weakest since 1991. Excluding motor
vehicles and gasoline, holiday sales are expected to increase from 2.5 percent
to 3 percent during the November through January period. That growth compares
with last year’s 3.4 percent gain.
“Higher energy and food prices are making
a dent in consumers’ wallets, and the dramatic drop in home mortgage refinancings
has dried up a substantial source of discretionary funds,” said Carl Steidtmann,
chief economist with Deloitte Research, in a statement. “In addition, continued
softness in the housing market, rising unemployment claims and a volatile stock
market are negatively affecting consumers’ perceptions of the economy, their
wealth and their ability to spend.”
Discussion Question: Do you sense that holiday
selling is arriving earlier than normal this year? If so, is that a smart move
given the economy? When do you think holiday selling should begin?
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Public opinion (pushed via current affairs programming on TV and in newspaper opinion pieces) in Australia always make a big deal about retail going to market early with Xmas and Easter merchandise.
The simple point is that the retailers and suppliers keep sending out the product earlier to see how long the season will stretch. If people vote with their wallets and leave the stock on the shelves to gather dust – this practice will quickly stop.
Don’t see that happening anytime soon.
My sense is that retailers will have higher risks holding the holiday inventory in stores for longer periods, and will be discounting in waves to draw traffic. This seasonal pattern we see repeatedly at retail has shoppers very well trained to watch and wait for “pre-season,” “in-season” or “late-season” sales. I don’t think having more to choose from earlier in the season is going to motivate many shoppers to open their wallets and pay full price for a lot of goods this year. This year I plan to spend a lot more time looking at the weekend flyers to figure out when to shop!
Holiday? Word is that this will be the worst Holiday in 17 years. Most retailers we work with are talking about lower inventories, reduced staff and generally less hub-bub. It could be a very gloomy December for all of us, not just retailers.
On the upside, a huge opportunity will be retail online this Holiday. If consumers are pressed, it’s much easier to shop for bargains or best value electronically so, look for the on line sales numbers to be off the charts.
As I see the Christmas items already for sale in stores I am saddened by the reminder that it’s all about the money. I don’t wish any retailer bad luck or begrudge them their fair share of the holiday season’s sales and profits, but it seems to get earlier every year.
Christmas started as a religious holiday and has become many retailers main profit maker. That coupled with worries about political correctness that has caused some retailers to be afraid to use the word Christmas so as to not offend anyone that isn’t Christian, has cast a pall over our values in my opinion.
I will begin my Christmas shopping after Thanksgiving and ignore all the space prematurely devoted to holiday merchandise until then. I’m an old fashioned Christian and proud of it.
What could be more depressing than the combination of Christmas and Back-To-School?
I agree with Lee. Etail will be the winner (albeit in a sad, slow race) in holiday sales this year. Why? Offers of free shipping, free gift wrapping and price comparison tools like Slifter, which help consumers get the best deal. Why fight through holiday crowds (such as they may be) and waste gas?
Consumers will be shopping on their lunch hours at their desks. Online sales should be timed to pop-up during this “rush hour.”
I think retailers should thank their lucky stars if they see growth of 2.5% – 3%. Higher gas and commodity prices are yesterday’s news…has anyone been reading the financial papers lately?
The beginning of the holiday season is similar to climate change; it may not be a smooth curve, but the overall trend demonstrates a clear direction.
I’m not sure why retailers need two months to get everything arranged for the holiday season’s official start in November, especially when it all comes down and is put away so quickly once the 25th comes and presents become late.
As for the economy, it will be a slow year and consumers are likely to wait to make purchases until they are forced to by a deadline or until they feel more secure. The results of the November election may not have much of an influence. The electorate is so split, an Obama win will make nearly as many feel more secure as a McCain win will.
Retailers are putting decorations out so people can have a longer time to worry about what kind of a Christmas they will have this year? People have just about made the change from summer to fall football, the economic news is more scary every day, and retailers want to push buying gifts and decorations? Maybe “insensitive” is the best word to use.
Well. I see at the time I write this that 62% of the poll respondents say Christmas should start in November. If this were an election, we’d have an overwhelming majority and Christmas would start in November. I’m with them. C level management tends to look at what increases shareholder value, as they should, since it’s what they’re paid to do, but in the process, they forget about growing a sustainable business that will stand for years.
I see one major component ignored in campaign after campaign, and this is why many stores fail to increase sales and have slow or negative growth patterns. This element is the level of consumer engagement with a product, or brand. Be that a store name or a line of products, you need to have a solid base of customer support. Pushing the seasonal advertising campaigns ahead further and further every year doesn’t cut it anymore. Having such a long season makes the bargains seem further and further away, and that’s what consumers are looking for this year in the pinched economy, right?
And it’s only going to get worse. After the elections in November we are sure to see another climb towards higher energy costs, and that will hit the consumers pretty hard in the northern tier states that need to heat their homes. Higher gasoline, diesel, heating oil and natural gas costs affect everybody. This aspect doesn’t seem to be considered in any of these discussions and projections.
It seems to me that if the retail industry wanted to turn slower sales around the emphasis would be on building customer levels of engagement, which translate into loyalty and excitement, further building upon your customer base.
Demographics aside, we need to start looking at what the consumer truly wants, and give that to them as often as possible. Earlier seasons just do not accomplish that task. It pushes freight along faster through the sales process, cleaning up distribution points and freeing up cash to buy, but people remember that. And people don’t like being pushed. Sooner or later every retail brand is going to have to face the question of “when is it too much, too soon?”
Two weeks ago I started seeing Halloween candy sales, more than 6-weeks before the holiday. Now I have started seeing Christmas merchandise.
Certainly, the idea is to prompt the shopper into action. I must question how many shoppers are ready to receive those prompts. I find it hard believe that the display space used for Halloween candy gets a better ROI than limiting the candy to 3 weeks and using the rest of the time for fresher merchandise. Net, net, the holiday will not generate more candy sales, but those with the displays out may take business from their competition.
The strategy for the acceleration of the Christmas season is exactly for the same reason. There is no indication that the longer season will sell more merchandise than the shorter seasons of past. What retailers are trying to do is steal share from their competition.
Will it work? Retailers have trained shoppers to go for the last minute sales with the share of buying being more consolidated in the last days. With today’s financial situation, I see further consolidation in the last days and a failure of efforts to lengthen the selling season.
What goes around, comes around, and retailers are pushing the Christmas selling season to encircle the entire calendar. Yes, the economy is faltering and sales are hard to come by, but summer seems too early for Christmas elfs and decorations. Maybe what retailing needs is a second Christmas season just after Easter.
The stock market’s performance over the past few days has put even a greater damper on consumers’ desire to spend. Putting holiday items on sale now might make sense to retailers, but it seems like a great disconnect for consumers. Halloween fright night would seem to be more appropriate.
This is the best position for retailers to take: starting the holiday selling season off early. This requires an earlier shift, but with consumers increasingly at risk, as well as their jobs, this is a smarter decision. The better the offerings, earlier in the season, the better the season. The risk will be minimized and our recession will have a slightly smaller impact. Costco and others are already in full swing and the long lines that come along with the holiday season are also present.
This notion that retailers are preparing their stores for the Christmas season earlier each year is an urban legend. It seems that commentators make this claim every year and, if it were correct, by now retailers would be starting to decorate their stores for Christmas in July.
Retailers start bring in Christmas merchandise and redoing their stores in mid-September because it take time to make the change over to the Christmas season. They can’t ship all of the merchandise and signage to stores and have it in place in a week before the open of the “official” Christmas season begins mid-November.
Finally, in these difficult and uncertain economic times, most consumers will delay making their Christmas purchases until late in the season when they have a better grasp on their own financial position. In addition, they will delay their Christmas purchases hoping the retailers will have more sales late in the season. It is unlikely that retailers can count on Christmas sales in September to help them through this difficult period.
Oh yes. I saw Halloween come in August this year. If retailers could have their way, Halloween would be moved up to September 30th so more room could be made for Christmas.
Maybe it is smart to start Christmas now. If the economy gets worse, better to separate the cash from consumers pockets now because it might not be there later.
I’m not quite sure why a retailer would start Christmas decorations now when Halloween has become such a popular holiday (you haven’t lived until you’ve been in a party supply store on the Friday and Saturday before Halloween).
Halloween is non-sectarian, non-gift giving and just generally fun. People love it.
Most likely the retailers stocking their stores with Christmas decorations are just putting out last year’s re-pack. Still, Halloween’s a better idea.
The merchandise disconnect between department stores and shoppers is seemingly never ending. “Spring is coming to Chicago!” merchandise in February when you’re snowed in, and “Luxe Fall Tweeds have arrived!” when the air conditioner is struggling to keep the house down to 80 degrees are yearly examples. But just try to find replacement boots or a swimsuit when you actually need them. Christmas in September is just another manifestation of the disconnect.
Yeah, Macy’s, everyone wants to buy their ornaments and holiday napkins right now at full price so they can store them under the bed with the dust bunnies for 3 months.
Costco set Christmas trees and Halloween yard deco in their stores the weekend after Labor Day.
Frankly, as a consumer it torks me off. Especially those annoying prelit trees that are already blaring Christmas music.
As a retailer, I think it’s a bad move too.
Everything is being pushed up. One chain I consulted with melded back to school with Halloween with the sole purpose of getting Christmas out by Oct 15th! The perception of a weak season is what’s driving these early deployments and as the saying goes, it can’t sell from the backroom.
Now let’s see, are they selling for Xmas 2008 or 2009…or 20XX???
I wonder if anyone has tested the efficacy of this off-seasoning of Christmas goods; I’d like to see a retailer hold off ’til November–the choice of most respondents–sort of a “we have the right spirit, we DARE you to shop somewhere else.” I predict it will be a fabulous success…or it will send them into Chapter 11; but I’m willing to take the risk (of being wrong) if they are (of going under)!
Christmas doesn’t sell in August, it doesn’t sell in September and it doesn’t sell in October either. Christmas starts to sell in November and ends on Dec 24th.
Isn’t there a tried and true statement concerning what we refuse to learn from the past we are destined to relive? How many years will retailers search for that magical fountain of youth, a BIG Christmas sales boost?
The soothsayers need only turn on the TV or open a paper to properly prognosticate the outlook on the holiday sales season. Look at the economy, at the savings rates, at the financial and insurance crises, at the escalating food and energy prices. This is a “Grinch Who Stole Christmas” season just waiting to happen.
Nordstrom has a strict policy of no Christmas until the day after Thanksgiving. To me, if you make the consumer wait – especially after being trained to expect Christmas in September – you may actually create a rush and possibly even some excitement.
A bunch of Bah Humbuggers you all seem to be. For me, I personally love the holidays and look forward to seeing the Halloween items and Christmas items in the stores no matter when they start.
I think a side of the fence none of you are looking at is, if people are supposedly going to “pinch pennies” and “hold on tight to their pocketbooks” doesn’t it make sense to start early? For example, people who are not CEOs and VPs of a company, the holidays, especially Christmas, are a financial burden. It makes more sense for regular Joes to start their shopping now and spread out the expense over a longer length of time. I know I had bought some Halloween Decorations in August and looked for more in the beginning of September and I went back to the same place yesterday and they were already sold out on some of their items.
I know you guys look at it from a company’s perspective but that is the exact problem; it isn’t companies that are buying the holiday items, it’s regular Joes that don’t have a lot of money. I can appreciate the fact that Joes are given the opportunity to spend a little here and there now up until it is “officially official” for you to think it is time for Christmas. If you don’t like it, stay out of the aisles!
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Public opinion (pushed via current affairs programming on TV and in newspaper opinion pieces) in Australia always make a big deal about retail going to market early with Xmas and Easter merchandise.
The simple point is that the retailers and suppliers keep sending out the product earlier to see how long the season will stretch. If people vote with their wallets and leave the stock on the shelves to gather dust – this practice will quickly stop.
Don’t see that happening anytime soon.
My sense is that retailers will have higher risks holding the holiday inventory in stores for longer periods, and will be discounting in waves to draw traffic. This seasonal pattern we see repeatedly at retail has shoppers very well trained to watch and wait for “pre-season,” “in-season” or “late-season” sales. I don’t think having more to choose from earlier in the season is going to motivate many shoppers to open their wallets and pay full price for a lot of goods this year. This year I plan to spend a lot more time looking at the weekend flyers to figure out when to shop!
Holiday? Word is that this will be the worst Holiday in 17 years. Most retailers we work with are talking about lower inventories, reduced staff and generally less hub-bub. It could be a very gloomy December for all of us, not just retailers.
On the upside, a huge opportunity will be retail online this Holiday. If consumers are pressed, it’s much easier to shop for bargains or best value electronically so, look for the on line sales numbers to be off the charts.
As I see the Christmas items already for sale in stores I am saddened by the reminder that it’s all about the money. I don’t wish any retailer bad luck or begrudge them their fair share of the holiday season’s sales and profits, but it seems to get earlier every year.
Christmas started as a religious holiday and has become many retailers main profit maker. That coupled with worries about political correctness that has caused some retailers to be afraid to use the word Christmas so as to not offend anyone that isn’t Christian, has cast a pall over our values in my opinion.
I will begin my Christmas shopping after Thanksgiving and ignore all the space prematurely devoted to holiday merchandise until then. I’m an old fashioned Christian and proud of it.
What could be more depressing than the combination of Christmas and Back-To-School?
I agree with Lee. Etail will be the winner (albeit in a sad, slow race) in holiday sales this year. Why? Offers of free shipping, free gift wrapping and price comparison tools like Slifter, which help consumers get the best deal. Why fight through holiday crowds (such as they may be) and waste gas?
Consumers will be shopping on their lunch hours at their desks. Online sales should be timed to pop-up during this “rush hour.”
I think retailers should thank their lucky stars if they see growth of 2.5% – 3%. Higher gas and commodity prices are yesterday’s news…has anyone been reading the financial papers lately?
The beginning of the holiday season is similar to climate change; it may not be a smooth curve, but the overall trend demonstrates a clear direction.
I’m not sure why retailers need two months to get everything arranged for the holiday season’s official start in November, especially when it all comes down and is put away so quickly once the 25th comes and presents become late.
As for the economy, it will be a slow year and consumers are likely to wait to make purchases until they are forced to by a deadline or until they feel more secure. The results of the November election may not have much of an influence. The electorate is so split, an Obama win will make nearly as many feel more secure as a McCain win will.
Retailers are putting decorations out so people can have a longer time to worry about what kind of a Christmas they will have this year? People have just about made the change from summer to fall football, the economic news is more scary every day, and retailers want to push buying gifts and decorations? Maybe “insensitive” is the best word to use.
Well. I see at the time I write this that 62% of the poll respondents say Christmas should start in November. If this were an election, we’d have an overwhelming majority and Christmas would start in November. I’m with them. C level management tends to look at what increases shareholder value, as they should, since it’s what they’re paid to do, but in the process, they forget about growing a sustainable business that will stand for years.
I see one major component ignored in campaign after campaign, and this is why many stores fail to increase sales and have slow or negative growth patterns. This element is the level of consumer engagement with a product, or brand. Be that a store name or a line of products, you need to have a solid base of customer support. Pushing the seasonal advertising campaigns ahead further and further every year doesn’t cut it anymore. Having such a long season makes the bargains seem further and further away, and that’s what consumers are looking for this year in the pinched economy, right?
And it’s only going to get worse. After the elections in November we are sure to see another climb towards higher energy costs, and that will hit the consumers pretty hard in the northern tier states that need to heat their homes. Higher gasoline, diesel, heating oil and natural gas costs affect everybody. This aspect doesn’t seem to be considered in any of these discussions and projections.
It seems to me that if the retail industry wanted to turn slower sales around the emphasis would be on building customer levels of engagement, which translate into loyalty and excitement, further building upon your customer base.
Demographics aside, we need to start looking at what the consumer truly wants, and give that to them as often as possible. Earlier seasons just do not accomplish that task. It pushes freight along faster through the sales process, cleaning up distribution points and freeing up cash to buy, but people remember that. And people don’t like being pushed. Sooner or later every retail brand is going to have to face the question of “when is it too much, too soon?”
Two weeks ago I started seeing Halloween candy sales, more than 6-weeks before the holiday. Now I have started seeing Christmas merchandise.
Certainly, the idea is to prompt the shopper into action. I must question how many shoppers are ready to receive those prompts. I find it hard believe that the display space used for Halloween candy gets a better ROI than limiting the candy to 3 weeks and using the rest of the time for fresher merchandise. Net, net, the holiday will not generate more candy sales, but those with the displays out may take business from their competition.
The strategy for the acceleration of the Christmas season is exactly for the same reason. There is no indication that the longer season will sell more merchandise than the shorter seasons of past. What retailers are trying to do is steal share from their competition.
Will it work? Retailers have trained shoppers to go for the last minute sales with the share of buying being more consolidated in the last days. With today’s financial situation, I see further consolidation in the last days and a failure of efforts to lengthen the selling season.
What goes around, comes around, and retailers are pushing the Christmas selling season to encircle the entire calendar. Yes, the economy is faltering and sales are hard to come by, but summer seems too early for Christmas elfs and decorations. Maybe what retailing needs is a second Christmas season just after Easter.
The stock market’s performance over the past few days has put even a greater damper on consumers’ desire to spend. Putting holiday items on sale now might make sense to retailers, but it seems like a great disconnect for consumers. Halloween fright night would seem to be more appropriate.
This is the best position for retailers to take: starting the holiday selling season off early. This requires an earlier shift, but with consumers increasingly at risk, as well as their jobs, this is a smarter decision. The better the offerings, earlier in the season, the better the season. The risk will be minimized and our recession will have a slightly smaller impact. Costco and others are already in full swing and the long lines that come along with the holiday season are also present.
This notion that retailers are preparing their stores for the Christmas season earlier each year is an urban legend. It seems that commentators make this claim every year and, if it were correct, by now retailers would be starting to decorate their stores for Christmas in July.
Retailers start bring in Christmas merchandise and redoing their stores in mid-September because it take time to make the change over to the Christmas season. They can’t ship all of the merchandise and signage to stores and have it in place in a week before the open of the “official” Christmas season begins mid-November.
Finally, in these difficult and uncertain economic times, most consumers will delay making their Christmas purchases until late in the season when they have a better grasp on their own financial position. In addition, they will delay their Christmas purchases hoping the retailers will have more sales late in the season. It is unlikely that retailers can count on Christmas sales in September to help them through this difficult period.
Oh yes. I saw Halloween come in August this year. If retailers could have their way, Halloween would be moved up to September 30th so more room could be made for Christmas.
Maybe it is smart to start Christmas now. If the economy gets worse, better to separate the cash from consumers pockets now because it might not be there later.
I’m not quite sure why a retailer would start Christmas decorations now when Halloween has become such a popular holiday (you haven’t lived until you’ve been in a party supply store on the Friday and Saturday before Halloween).
Halloween is non-sectarian, non-gift giving and just generally fun. People love it.
Most likely the retailers stocking their stores with Christmas decorations are just putting out last year’s re-pack. Still, Halloween’s a better idea.
The merchandise disconnect between department stores and shoppers is seemingly never ending. “Spring is coming to Chicago!” merchandise in February when you’re snowed in, and “Luxe Fall Tweeds have arrived!” when the air conditioner is struggling to keep the house down to 80 degrees are yearly examples. But just try to find replacement boots or a swimsuit when you actually need them. Christmas in September is just another manifestation of the disconnect.
Yeah, Macy’s, everyone wants to buy their ornaments and holiday napkins right now at full price so they can store them under the bed with the dust bunnies for 3 months.
Costco set Christmas trees and Halloween yard deco in their stores the weekend after Labor Day.
Frankly, as a consumer it torks me off. Especially those annoying prelit trees that are already blaring Christmas music.
As a retailer, I think it’s a bad move too.
Everything is being pushed up. One chain I consulted with melded back to school with Halloween with the sole purpose of getting Christmas out by Oct 15th! The perception of a weak season is what’s driving these early deployments and as the saying goes, it can’t sell from the backroom.
Now let’s see, are they selling for Xmas 2008 or 2009…or 20XX???
I wonder if anyone has tested the efficacy of this off-seasoning of Christmas goods; I’d like to see a retailer hold off ’til November–the choice of most respondents–sort of a “we have the right spirit, we DARE you to shop somewhere else.” I predict it will be a fabulous success…or it will send them into Chapter 11; but I’m willing to take the risk (of being wrong) if they are (of going under)!
Christmas doesn’t sell in August, it doesn’t sell in September and it doesn’t sell in October either. Christmas starts to sell in November and ends on Dec 24th.
Isn’t there a tried and true statement concerning what we refuse to learn from the past we are destined to relive? How many years will retailers search for that magical fountain of youth, a BIG Christmas sales boost?
The soothsayers need only turn on the TV or open a paper to properly prognosticate the outlook on the holiday sales season. Look at the economy, at the savings rates, at the financial and insurance crises, at the escalating food and energy prices. This is a “Grinch Who Stole Christmas” season just waiting to happen.
Nordstrom has a strict policy of no Christmas until the day after Thanksgiving. To me, if you make the consumer wait – especially after being trained to expect Christmas in September – you may actually create a rush and possibly even some excitement.
A bunch of Bah Humbuggers you all seem to be. For me, I personally love the holidays and look forward to seeing the Halloween items and Christmas items in the stores no matter when they start.
I think a side of the fence none of you are looking at is, if people are supposedly going to “pinch pennies” and “hold on tight to their pocketbooks” doesn’t it make sense to start early? For example, people who are not CEOs and VPs of a company, the holidays, especially Christmas, are a financial burden. It makes more sense for regular Joes to start their shopping now and spread out the expense over a longer length of time. I know I had bought some Halloween Decorations in August and looked for more in the beginning of September and I went back to the same place yesterday and they were already sold out on some of their items.
I know you guys look at it from a company’s perspective but that is the exact problem; it isn’t companies that are buying the holiday items, it’s regular Joes that don’t have a lot of money. I can appreciate the fact that Joes are given the opportunity to spend a little here and there now up until it is “officially official” for you to think it is time for Christmas. If you don’t like it, stay out of the aisles!